Bitcoin 2026: Galaxy Digital explains why market prospects are so unpredictable

quietly_staking · 2026-01-20T14:10:27+00:00

Galaxy Digital analyzes the current Bitcoin market, highlighting uncertainty due to macroeconomic factors. Despite volatility, signs of market maturity emerge, including decreasing long-term volatility. They remain optimistic, predicting Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2027 through growing institutional adoption and systematic investment strategies.

quietly_staking

2026-01-20 14:10:27

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In Focus: Options Market Sends Confusing Signals

The current Bitcoin price action (currently at $91.08K with -2.09% in 24 hours) raises questions addressed by Galaxy Digital in its latest analysis. The company’s research team emphasizes that macroeconomic uncertainties and political risks make forecasts for 2026 extremely complex. Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, warns: The coming year is “too chaotic” to predict reliably.

The biggest problem lies in the extreme range of possible scenarios. The options market – where institutional investors hedge their price risks – reflects this uncertainty. Traders assess the following scenarios as equally likely:

Mid-2026: Bitcoin between $70,000 and $130,000
End-2026: Bitcoin around $50,000 or $250,000

This enormous range does not indicate a clear trend but rather significant price fluctuations that professional market participants are preparing for.

Structural Changes Beneath the Surface

Despite this volatility, there are signs of market maturity. Bitcoin’s long-term volatility is declining – partly due to growing institutional strategies such as covered-call options and yield-generating programs that automatically dampen extreme price swings. Another sign of maturity is the volatility smile pattern: the cost of hedging against downside risks is now more expensive than for upside risks – a feature of mature macroeconomic assets like stocks or commodities, not typical for highly volatile growth markets.

Why a “Boring” Year Doesn’t Harm Bitcoin

Galaxy remains optimistic in the long term. Even if 2026 is characterized by sideways movement or the price tests technical levels like the 200-week moving average, the company expects institutional adoption to advance. A key factor: large asset allocation platforms are apparently considering including Bitcoin in standardized model portfolios – meaning investments would be systematic rather than discretionary.

This structural integration would lead to steady Bitcoin inflows across market cycles, regardless of short-term volatility. Thorn believes that improvements in institutional access, potential easing of monetary policy, and demand for alternatives to fiat currencies could lead Bitcoin to become a hedge against currency devaluation – similar to gold.

The Long-Term Goal: $250,000 by the End of 2027

Galaxy Digital maintains its optimistic medium-term forecast: Bitcoin could rise to $250,000 by the end of 2027. The current level around $91,000 shows there is plenty of room – provided that institutional adoption and monetary policy factors align.

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