The Federal Reserve's independence wavers—has Bitcoin's safe-haven moment arrived?

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Author: Gino Matos

Compiled by: Deep潮 TechFlow

Introduction: Against the backdrop of global macroeconomic volatility and escalating geopolitical struggles, the European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane issued a rare warning: the “tussle” between the Federal Reserve and political forces could threaten the international status of the US dollar.

This article delves into how such political pressure can transmit through the term premium to global financial markets and explains why, during this shaky period in the credit system, Bitcoin might become investors’ last safe haven.

Using multidimensional data including US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and stablecoin ecosystems, the author dissects two very different macro paradigms that Bitcoin may face in the future.

Main text:

The European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane issued a warning that most market participants initially viewed as an internal European “household affair”: while the ECB can currently maintain its accommodative stance, the “tussle” around the Federal Reserve’s independence could, by pushing up US term premiums and triggering a reassessment of the dollar’s role, lead to global market turmoil.

Lane’s tone is crucial because it highlights several specific transmission channels most impactful to Bitcoin: real yields, dollar liquidity, and the credibility framework underpinning the current macro system.

The immediate cause of recent market cooling is geopolitical tensions. As concerns over US actions against Iran fade, the risk premium on oil has diminished. As of press time, Brent crude fell to about $63.55, WTI to about $59.64, down approximately 4.5% from the high on January 14.

This at least temporarily breaks the chain reaction from geopolitical tensions to inflation expectations and then to the bond markets.

However, Lane’s comments point to another risk: not supply shocks or growth data, but political pressure on the Fed that could force markets to reassess US assets based on governance factors rather than fundamentals.

In recent weeks, the IMF has also emphasized the importance of the Fed’s independence, noting that weakening independence could negatively impact “credit ratings.” This systemic risk often manifests in term premiums and foreign exchange risk premiums before hitting headlines.

The term premium is part of long-term yields, compensating investors for uncertainty and maturity risk, independent of expected future short-term rates.

As of mid-January, the ACM term premium from the New York Fed remained around 0.70%, while the 10-year zero-coupon valuation from FRED was about 0.59%. On January 14, the nominal yield on 10-year Treasuries was approximately 4.15%, with a 10-year TIPS real yield of 1.86%, and the 5-year breakeven inflation expectation (as of January 15) at 2.36%.

By recent standards, these data are stable. But Lane’s core point is that if markets start to price in a “governance discount” for US assets, this stability could quickly unravel. The shock to the term premium does not require Fed rate hikes; it can occur when credibility is damaged, even if policy rates remain unchanged, pushing long-term yields higher.

Figure caption: The 10-year US Treasury term premium rose to 0.772% in December 2025, the highest since 2020, when yields reached 4.245%.

The channel of the term premium is essentially a discount rate channel

Bitcoin, stocks, and other duration-sensitive assets are in the same “discount rate universe.”

When the term premium rises, long-term yields climb, financial conditions tighten, and liquidity premiums are compressed. ECB research records how the dollar appreciates as the Fed tightens across multiple policy dimensions, making US interest rates the core pricing standard globally (pricing kernel).

Historically, Bitcoin’s upward momentum has often come from the expansion of liquidity premiums: when real yields are low, discount rates are loose, and risk appetite is high.

A shock to the term premium can reverse this dynamic without the Fed changing the federal funds rate. That’s why Lane’s tone is significant for crypto, even though he was speaking to European policymakers.

On January 16, the US dollar index (DXY) was around 99.29, near recent lows. But the “reassessment of the dollar’s role” Lane mentioned opens up two very different scenarios, not a single outcome.

In the traditional “yield differential” paradigm, rising US yields strengthen the dollar, tighten global liquidity, and pressure risk assets including Bitcoin. Studies show that post-2020, cryptocurrencies have become more correlated with macro assets, and in some samples, negatively correlated with the dollar index.

However, under a credibility risk paradigm, outcomes diverge: if investors demand a premium for US assets due to governance risks, the term premium could rise even as the dollar weakens or remains volatile. In this case, Bitcoin’s trading properties would resemble a “venting valve” or alternative currency asset, especially if inflation expectations rise alongside credibility concerns.

Moreover, Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks, AI narratives, and Fed signals is now tighter than in previous cycles.

According to data from Farside Investors, Bitcoin ETF inflows turned positive again in January, totaling over $1.6 billion. Coin Metrics notes that open interest in spot options is concentrated near the $100,000 strike expiring at the end of January.

This positioning means macro shocks could be amplified through leverage and gamma dynamics, turning Lane’s abstract “term premium” concerns into concrete catalysts for market volatility.

Figure caption: Open interest in Bitcoin options expiring on January 30, 2026, shows over 9,000 call contracts at the $100,000 strike, the highest concentration.

Stablecoin infrastructure “crypto-native” dollar risk

A large part of the crypto trading layer operates on dollar-pegged stablecoins, which are backed by safe assets (usually US Treasuries).

BIS research links stablecoin pricing dynamics to those of safe assets. This means that shocks to the term premium are not just macro “moods,” but can directly influence stablecoin yields, demand, and on-chain liquidity conditions.

When the term premium rises, the cost of holding duration increases, which can impact stablecoin reserves management and alter liquidity available for risk trading. Bitcoin may not be a direct substitute for US Treasuries, but within its ecosystem, US debt pricing sets the benchmark for “risk-free” valuation.

Currently, markets assign about a 95% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the January meeting, with major banks delaying their expected rate cuts until 2026.

This consensus reflects confidence in recent policy continuity, anchoring the term premium. But Lane’s warning is forward-looking: if this confidence breaks, the term premium could jump 25 to 75 basis points within weeks without any change in the federal funds rate.

A mechanical example: if the term premium rises by 50 basis points and short-term rates are expected to stay flat, the 10-year nominal yield could drift from 4.15% to around 4.65%, with real yields re-pricing accordingly.

For Bitcoin, this means a tightening financial environment, which could also bring downside risk through the same channels that pressure high-duration stocks.

However, if the weakening dollar results from a credibility shock, the risk profile changes entirely.

If global investors start to de-risk US assets based on governance concerns, even rising term premiums might coincide with a weaker dollar. In this scenario, Bitcoin’s volatility could spike sharply, and its trajectory would depend on whether the dominant paradigm becomes yield differential or credibility risk.

While academic debate on Bitcoin’s “inflation hedge” properties continues, in most risk regimes, the main channels remain real yields and liquidity, rather than solely breakeven inflation expectations.

Lane’s analysis forces us to consider both possibilities simultaneously. That’s why “dollar re-pricing” is not a one-way bet but a systemic bifurcation.

Monitoring checklist

A clear checklist for tracking this development:

On the macro level:

• Term premiums
• 10-year TIPS real yields
• 5-year breakeven inflation expectations
• USD index (DXY) levels and volatility

On the crypto level:

• Flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs
• Options open interest near key strike prices like $100,000
• Skew changes before and after major macro events

These indicators connect Lane’s warnings with Bitcoin’s price behavior, without speculating on future Fed policy decisions.

Lane’s signals were initially aimed at European markets, but the “channels” he describes are the same logic that determines Bitcoin’s macro environment. Oil premiums have receded, but the “governance risk” he pointed out still exists.

If markets start pricing in the Fed’s political tussle, the impact will not be limited to the US. It will propagate globally through the dollar and the yield curve, and Bitcoin’s reaction to such shocks often proves more sensitive and anticipatory than most traditional assets.