Bitcoin Outlook: Will $60,000 be the bottom in 2026 during the halving cycle?

The Bitcoin market is entering another period of uncertainty, and speculation about the possible bottom level is drawing attention from both retail and institutional investors. Early player in the cryptocurrency ecosystem Michael Terpin published a thesis about a potential drop in Bitcoin’s price to around $60,000 in the last quarter of 2026. This forecast is based on the historical pattern of halvings and marks a key turning point for the accumulation phase, which could precede a significant rise in 2028-2029.

The significance of halving in Bitcoin price dynamics

The halving mechanism reduces the supply of new BTC introduced to the market, which historically influences the demand and supply structure for many years. Terpin claims that the largest accumulation phase will not begin immediately after the halving but rather two to three years later. In this context, the potential bottom at $60,000 would not be a catastrophic collapse but a natural correction within the market cycle.

Contemporary market conditions differ from previous cycles. Institutional participation in Bitcoin is increasing, spot ETF exchanges have changed access to the asset, and major entities may treat Bitcoin as strategic reserves. These factors could impact both the depth of the potential decline and the pace of recovery.

Time perspective: when will the market actually move?

Instead of expecting a bull run immediately after the halving, Terpin predicts that consolidation will last longer. The period between 2026 and 2027 could be an opportunity for strategic buyers to build positions at low prices. The number of investors willing to wait for an opportunity in 2026 will be crucial for its realization.

2026 could mark a turning point in the speculative cycle, where rational market participants will take calculated steps toward the next growth phase. In this scenario, the bottom would not be a failure but an opportunity.

Factors that could modify the scenario

Macroeconomic volatility, regulatory decisions, and the evolution of investor attitudes could change the expected course. The current Bitcoin price is $91,250, which shows a significant distance from the potential level of $60,000. If institutional interest grows faster than expected, downward pressure may be weaker.

Rising recognition of Bitcoin as an alternative strategic asset and ongoing macroeconomic challenges could also alter price dynamics in unexpected directions. Market observers should monitor the balance between selling pressure and renewed institutional demand.

Conclusion: bottom as a starting point, not an endpoint

Terpin’s hypothesis suggests that Bitcoin will go through a normalization of prices, but the long-term structure will remain supported by scarcity and demand. 2026 may not be a year of triumph or failure but a transitional point for serious players preparing for the next market move. For those who understand halving cycles, the potential bottom at $60,000 could be a strategic coincidence.