Bitcoin supporters and Maduro opponents are fighting for power in Venezuela — does Machado have a chance?

The arrest of Nicolás Maduro opens a new chapter in Venezuelan politics, and the country’s future scenario seems complex. Among potential successors to the president, an interesting player has emerged — María Corina Machado, a Bitcoin supporter and leading opposition figure who recently received the Nobel Peace Prize 2025.

Who might take power? Market forecasts from Kalshi

Market predictions point to three main candidates for the position. Leading the pack is Edmundo González Urrutia from the Unitary Platform Alliance — the market gives him a 32% chance of taking control by the end of 2026. Although widely regarded as the winner of the May 2025 elections, his path to the presidency has been blocked by the ruling United Socialist Party.

In second place is Machado with a 28% chance. This Venezuelan opposition leader is gaining increasing support among both Venezuelans and the international community. Her stance on cryptocurrencies positions her as a leader open to new technological solutions.

Third place is held by Delcy Eloína Rodríguez with a 27% chance. The former vice president alongside Maduro, she was appointed by the Venezuelan Supreme Court as interim leader after the arrest of the former president.

What will happen to Maduro?

The former Venezuelan leader has been transported to New York, where he faces serious federal charges involving drug trafficking and corruption. This turn of events marks the beginning of a new era for a country rich in natural resources but affected by a decade of political instability and economic crisis.