When Bitcoin's value diverges from historical correlations: what does the Stock-to-Flow model say

The Bitcoin market is showing a fascinating phenomenon that has caught the attention of industry analysts. Currently, with BTC trading around $91,280, the digital asset is in a position reminiscent of a critical moment in its history: when the price deviates significantly from its traditional correlations with conventional assets such as the S&P 500 and gold.

The historical divergence between Bitcoin and traditional markets

According to observations by Plan B, the renowned developer of the Stock-to-Flow model, Bitcoin currently exhibits a notable disconnect from its historical correlations. Compared to stock indices and commodities, the current price is dramatically lower than what long-term regression trends would suggest.

This situation is not unprecedented. A similar dynamic occurred when Bitcoin was still trading below $1,000. At that time, this very divergence preceded a roughly tenfold upward movement. It is no coincidence that Plan B highlights this historical parallel: such a valuation configuration is indeed in a rare and potentially significant position from a statistical point of view.

The Stock-to-Flow model and scarcity as a value driver

Plan B built his reputation through the Stock-to-Flow model, a methodology that treats Bitcoin as a scarce asset governed by supply dynamics similar to those of traditional commodities like gold. From this perspective, increasing scarcity should lead to significant revaluations over time.

Although the model has received criticism in recent years—particularly for not accurately predicting the peaks of previous cycles—it remains one of the most discussed analytical frameworks in the crypto community. Today, with Bitcoin in such an anomalous valuation position relative to its traditional reference assets, the model gains new relevance in market discussions.

Dynamic correlations: the uncertainty factor

However, Plan B himself acknowledges a cautious element in his thesis: correlations are not immutable. Bitcoin has not maintained a static correlation with traditional markets across different market cycles. During periods of monetary devaluation, assets with real scarcity characteristics tend to move together, but this trend can be interrupted.

The possibility that correlations break this time represents the element of uncertainty that no analyst—no matter how experienced—can eliminate. The scenario of a tenfold increase remains fascinating from a historical perspective, but it does not guarantee market certainty.

Current consolidation and future prospects

Bitcoin has experienced sideways movement in recent weeks, following the October peak. This consolidation fuels two opposing interpretations among market participants: some see it as a preparatory phase for a new expansionary move, others interpret it as the beginning of a prolonged cooling period.

For now, Plan B emphasizes that the current valuation divergence deserves attention and is a reference point to monitor with interest. Historical analysis offers fascinating insights, but only time will tell whether this time patterns will repeat or if the market will write a different story.