Bitcoin in 2026: institutions prepare for the next phase, here's what experts expect

The cryptocurrency market structure is undergoing a radical transformation that few truly understand. While many observers still attempt to apply the old logic of traditional cycles, a different reality is emerging: the transfer of control from retail to institutions. According to a logical analysis of current market data, the landscape does not represent the peak of a bull market, but rather the beginning of a new era of strategic positioning.

The changing of the guard: when control shifts to institutions

In 2025, individual investors reduced their downside exposure by 66%, while institutional actors increased their market share to 24%. This is not a small adjustment: it represents an almost complete generational shift in the market. Bitcoin experienced an annual contraction of -9.96%, currently around $91.17K, yet the all-time high reached $126.08K sends a message completely different from what the current price suggests.

The apparent price weakness hides intense accumulation activity at higher levels. Institutions continue to build positions not based on the current price level, but considering the entire cycle. This behavior explains why the current volatility should not be interpreted as a negative signal, but as a phase of structural consolidation.

Short, medium, and long-term prospects

In the short term (3-6 months): Bitcoin is expected to move within the range of $87,000 to $95,000, with institutional accumulation continuing consistently. It is during this phase that on-chain behavioral analysis becomes crucial for monitoring real capital flows.

In the medium term (first half of 2026): Thanks to expected political support and sustained demand from institutional allocations, the target range is between $120,000 and $150,000. This period has been described as a true “honeymoon” from a political perspective, with macroeconomic conditions potentially favorable.

In the long term (second half of 2026): Political uncertainty related to the November 2026 elections could introduce additional volatility, but the structural foundation built in previous months should remain robust.

The invisible catalyst: ETFs and institutional entry

A often underestimated fact is the inflow of about $25 billion through ETFs, a phenomenon signaling strong expectations for the next cycle. This does not represent retail speculation but strategic portfolio allocation by professional managers.

The first half of 2026 emerges as the crucial period because it combines three favorable factors simultaneously: clarity on institutional allocation intentions, the most significant political support, and complete infrastructural developments that were absent in previous cycles.

The risks that remain hidden

Not everything is smooth. The Fed maintains control over monetary policy, the prospect of a strong dollar could exert pressure, regulatory changes might be delayed, and long-term bond sales remain a source of uncertainty. However, these very risks create the best opportunities for those who can observe the market with true logical analysis rather than emotion.

When the structure changes, the game changes

The most significant change is not in prices or numbers, but in the market’s structural foundation. ETF infrastructure has evolved, regulatory clarity is increasing, and price discovery mechanisms are being rebuilt around this new institutional reality.

2025 is not “the darkest year,” as it might superficially seem: it is the transition point where the institutionalization process accelerates. When a market’s structure changes fundamentally, old valuation metrics lose validity, and new price discovery power emerges from the new configuration.

Anyone observing the market through traditional trading apps or simple price alerts risks missing the big picture. True logical analysis requires understanding that widespread market pessimism often precedes the best opportunities for long-term structural positioning.