Sellers regain control of the derivatives market! Bitcoin spot demand is lacking, can the rebound continue?

【CryptoPush】Recent on-chain data has shown some interesting changes. A few weeks ago, buyers were still in control, but now sellers have regained the narrative power in the derivatives market. Even more concerning is that the US spot market is not providing any hedging demand support—these two signals together point to the market entering a risk-avoidance mode.

Looking at the active buy and sell orders makes it clear. The flow of active trading has rapidly shifted toward sellers, with the imbalance index dropping to -0.0917, and the Z-score (90 days) reaching -1.81. The market is now a typical scenario dominated by persistent selling. Compared to a few days ago when the signals were nearly neutral, this deterioration is quite obvious. Supporting this, the short position ratio has risen to 0.546, while the long position has fallen to 0.454, making the long-short strength disparity quite stark.

What does this structure mean? It indicates that sellers are not just holding positions but actively dumping. As long as the Z-score remains in the negative zone, any rebound will lack strength, essentially just a brief breather, and you shouldn’t expect a trend reversal. The first real sign of improvement is when the Z-score returns to the neutral zone, and the imbalance index gradually narrows.

Another detail worth noting is that the Bitcoin Coinbase premium index is now negative, around -0.077. In simple terms, market participants in the US are not keen on buying above the global market price. In this situation, pulse waves in derivatives may cause sharp fluctuations and short-term rebounds, but without spot market follow-through, these waves are unlikely to translate into a genuine recovery.

It’s important to emphasize that this is not a panic sell scenario. The real issue is that buying pressure has disappeared—and this demand usually confirms market quality. Only when the premium index turns positive and US spot demand truly returns will market improvement signals become evident.