2026-01-20 06:40:30

#比特币2026年行情展望 2026 Bitcoin is destined to be a cycle game. The diminishing effect of supply-side halving is fading, but the spot ETF has rewritten the gameplay—institutions are truly investing real money, breaking the historical patterns of the past.

The year has already exploded. The price has fallen nearly 30% from the end of last year’s $126,000, with two large-scale liquidations, and market sentiment is very tense. The voices from institutions are polarized to an absurd degree: Bernstein, Standard Chartered, and other bullish voices are calling for $150,000, with Bit Mining even boldly predicting $225,000; on the other hand, Fidelity is more cautious, providing support at the lower range of $65,000-$75,000.

The redemptive benefits of supply tightening are gradually fading, and inflation has dropped to 0.85%. The real influence has shifted to the demand side. What the Federal Reserve will do next, where the global regulatory framework is heading, and how the geopolitical situation will evolve—these are the key factors influencing the market.

Overall, in 2026, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate within the range of $75,000 to $170,000, with a potential trend rebound window once liquidity relaxes in the second half of the year.

BTC-3,73%

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SorryRugPulled

· 10h ago

Here we go again with the pattern, can institutional entry really change the rules? I think we're still trapped in the cycle of history.

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SatoshiNotNakamoto

· 10h ago

Institutions are really entering the market now, feels like the whole game rules have completely changed. Though I gotta say, this decline is pretty scary. I trust Fidelity's 65k floor though --- 225k? You're dreaming lol. It's more realistic to hold steady above 75k first --- Honestly right now it's all about reading the Fed's mood. The halving premium is already gone, it's purely liquidity-driven at this point --- The 75k-170k range is too wide, that's basically saying "it could go up or down" lol --- A bounce window in the second half? I'd rather secure my principal first before thinking about that

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SignatureVerifier

· 10h ago

ngl the halving card's basically played out at this point. what actually matters now is whether institutions keep the bid or bail when rates stay sticky—insufficient validation on that front tbh. ranges are fine but nobody's really stress-testing the fed pivot scenario enough imo.

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Anon4461

· 10h ago

The institutional entry indeed changed the situation, but this range is too wide, from 75,000 to 170,000... it's like not saying anything haha --- The support below Fidelity is a bit conservative, feels like they want to leave themselves a way out --- The real focus is still on what the Federal Reserve will do, this is more effective than any halving effect --- Two liquidation events just at the start of the year, this pace is a bit outrageous --- As the supply dividend diminishes, it all depends on where the money flows now, currently relying entirely on macro factors --- 225,000? Is Bit Mining trying to stir things up or are they genuinely this optimistic... --- Liquidity easing is the real savior, just waiting for that move in the second half of the year --- The ETF strategy rewrite is indeed a thing, but it also means volatility could be even greater --- Range trading basically means we still don't know the direction, betting on policy --- A 30% drop at the end of last year is normal, just see if it can hold 75,000

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AirdropSkeptic

· 10h ago

Can real money from institutions entering the market change the rules? Will history cooperate this way? I have a hard time believing this.

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NotFinancialAdviser

· 10h ago

Institutional influence is indeed becoming more significant, but can the ETF approach really rewrite historical patterns? I remain skeptical. 22.5K is a bold call; they must be very optimistic behind the scenes, betting that the Federal Reserve will really loosen monetary policy. The second-half window sounds promising, but the question is how many can survive until then. The decline in halving benefits is accurate; now it's all about macro expectations. Fidelity's support level at 65,000 is really impressive; I have no idea what will happen if it breaks below that. If historical patterns are broken, then the logic of playing this game must also be rewritten.

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