2026-01-20 06:33:17

Polymarket users are pricing in substantial uncertainty around tariff policy enforcement. The prediction market currently reflects a 71% probability that the Supreme Court will rule against the proposed tariff measures today. This reading from one of crypto's most active forecasting platforms offers an interesting snapshot of market sentiment on the legal challenges surrounding trade policy. The data shows how decentralized prediction markets aggregate information across traders betting real capital on outcomes—a mechanism that has grown increasingly relevant as major economic and policy decisions face legal scrutiny.

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

10 Likes

Reward
10
3
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

AlwaysAnon

· 2h ago

71%? Hmm... This time, the market's expectations really underestimated the Supreme Court.

View OriginalReply0

SilentObserver

· 2h ago

71%? That odds seem a bit conservative. Why is the actual outcome so hard to predict?

View OriginalReply0

Layer2Observer

· 2h ago

The figure 71% is interesting, but to be honest, predicting the market is just packaging gambling as a science. The real question is whether participants are genuinely engaging in information arbitrage or just following the trend and pushing on the same side... We need to look at trading depth and volatility curves to have a say.

View OriginalReply0