2026-01-20 06:25:06

Does the four-year cycle really still work?

Looking at this round of the market, it's clear that those who follow the textbook explanations of halving, bull markets, and altcoin seasons are likely to be disappointed. In the past, people believed that the market would automatically pay out according to a calendar, but this self-illusion was crushed by reality in 2025.

The new game rules are simple and brutal—no one cares about historical charts anymore; the market only cares about two things: who is throwing money in, and where the hot spots are. Capital flow and the concentration of public opinion determine the price trend, which is more straightforward than any cycle theory. No matter how perfect your analysis is, it can't beat a trending hashtag or a large institutional order.

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liquidation_watcher

· 6h ago

Halving theory? That outdated idea has long been obsolete. Now, it's all about who has more money and who calls the shots. Topic popularity and capital flow are the true kings; analysis is useless. Looking at those who believed in cycle theory before, they are indeed having a tough time now. This round of market directly slapped all technical analysis in the face; as soon as hot searches appear, the price moves. Capital flow is the only truth; everything else is self-deception. It must be said, institutions go all-in, and all cycle theories collapse. Past rules are now just a joke; money talks.

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rekt_but_not_broke

· 6h ago

People who sold based on the halving concept are probably crying now. Copying historical charts is really outdated. Fundamentals and public opinion are king; all the cycle theories are nonsense. A trending hot search can wipe out three months of your analysis, that's all. The speed at which institutions dump their holdings is faster than you can react. Cycle theories should have gone bankrupt long ago; 2025 has finally awakened them.

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