XRP Technical Outlook: Base Formation Develops After Prolonged Descending Channel

XRP remains within a broader corrective structure after the strong rejection from the $3.25–$3.66 macro supply zone (0.786–1 Fib). That rejection marked a distribution top, followed by sustained bearish continuation inside a descending channel.

Recent price action shows XRP defending the lower channel base near $1.77–$1.95, where buyers have started to build a rounded accumulation structure. Momentum has stabilized, though the higher-timeframe trend has not yet flipped bullish.

EMA Structure (Bearish Bias, Short-Term Stabilization)

20 EMA: $2.045
50 EMA: $2.066
100 EMA: $2.189
200 EMA: $2.311

XRP is currently below all major EMAs, keeping the medium- to long-term structure bearish. Price is attempting to hold above the $1.95–$2.00 micro base, signaling short-term stabilization, but upside remains capped while below the 100 & 200 EMA cluster.

The $2.19–$2.31 zone represents a major dynamic resistance band.

Fibonacci & Price Structure

1 Fib: $3.661
0.786 Fib: $3.256
0.618 Fib: $2.938
0.5 Fib: $2.715
0.382 Fib: $2.492
0.236 Fib: $2.216
Fib 0: $1.770

XRP is trading just above the Fib 0 base ($1.77) and below the 0.236 Fib ($2.216), keeping price inside a range-bound recovery phase.

A clean break and acceptance above $2.22–$2.31 would open the door for a move toward $2.49–$2.72, where Fib resistance and EMA confluence align.

Failure to hold above $1.95–$1.90 would expose XRP back to the $1.77 macro demand floor.

Structural Context

Price action shows higher lows since the December bottom, suggesting early accumulation behavior. However, XRP remains capped below the descending channel resistance and major EMAs, keeping the current move classified as a corrective base, not a confirmed trend reversal.

A decisive daily close above $2.31–$2.49 would be required to shift market structure toward bullish continuation.

RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 43–52

RSI is recovering from lower levels but remains near neutral, reflecting stabilizing momentum with limited bullish conviction. This supports a base-building environment rather than an impulsive breakout phase.

📊 Key Levels

Resistance

$2.22–$2.31 (0.236 Fib / EMA cluster)

$2.49 (0.382 Fib)

$2.71 (0.5 Fib)

$2.94 (0.618 Fib)

Support

$2.00–$1.95 (range base)

$1.90–$1.87 (local demand)

$1.77 (Fib 0 / macro demand)

📌 Summary

XRP is forming a structured base after a prolonged decline from macro supply. While downside momentum has slowed and accumulation is developing, the broader structure remains corrective unless price can reclaim $2.22–$2.49 with strength. Until that happens, XRP is likely to remain in a range-bound recovery phase with heavy resistance overhead.

$XRP