#预测市场 Seeing that the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 in January on Polymarket is only 27%, while the chance of it reaching $90,000 is as high as 91%, this combination of numbers reminds me of the frenzy in 2017.

Back then, I was also active in prediction markets, and I remember everyone shouting about $100,000, $1 million. But what was the result? Reality is often much more conservative than expectations. This time, the difference is that market participants seem to have learned their lesson—they are betting mainly on $90,000 rather than $100,000, indicating that collective rationality is improving.

But here’s an interesting paradox: as the probabilities in prediction markets become more rational, they themselves lose their predictive power. Because the market has already priced in the consensus. True opportunities often lie in overlooked tail events—for example, the 30% chance of dropping to $80,000.

History shows me that each cycle’s turning point is hidden in the blind spots of probability. The sharp decline at the end of 2013, the 2018 bear market, the 2022 crash—all of these were seriously underestimated by the market beforehand. These numbers on Polymarket are just snapshots of current consensus, not promises of the future.

What truly matters is the mindset of the participants behind these numbers—they are either on the defensive or greedy. Looking at the 91% probability of reaching $90,000, the current stance is clearly defensive. In a defensive market, the biggest surprises often lie.