#比特币周期规律 Recently studying Bitcoin's cycle patterns, I found this market analysis really interesting! 🤔

After reading several institutions' 2026 outlooks, I feel there's quite a bit of disagreement among them. Some say Bitcoin's "four-year cycle" has completely failed because 2025 surprisingly became the first year to decline after the halving; but others believe the cycle is still valid, just the driving logic has changed—from simple halving expectations to being influenced by macro factors like Federal Reserve policies, Japanese interest rate hikes, and global liquidity.

What impressed me most was Fidelity's view: they say the key is to look at the scale of incremental demand—if more countries include Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves, demand will increase significantly; conversely, if institutions are forced to sell, prices will be pushed down. It feels like a balancing game—slight tilts can change the entire situation.

Currently, Bitcoin's situation seems quite complex: the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates 2-3 times in 2026, which is a positive signal; but at the same time, Japan is considering interest rate hikes, which is negative. Major events like the US midterm elections and the EU's MiCA implementation could also become "black swans."

VanEck's suggested dollar-cost averaging strategy (1%-3% Bitcoin allocation) seems to be a relatively safe choice? After all, for a beginner like me, blindly chasing highs or panicking and selling is clearly unwise. I want to ask everyone, how are you currently dealing with this uncertainty? Are you holding your coins, or waiting for clearer signals? 📊