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Federal Reserve Archives Reveal: How a Policy Choice Made 5 Years Ago Changed the Entire Market

These days, market discussions are very lively—an FOMC meeting record released by the Federal Reserve brought a decision from September 2020 back into focus. At that meeting, Powell strongly advocated for locking the benchmark interest rate at zero and publicly committed that "rate hikes will not be considered until inflation reaches 2%."

Looking back, how deep was the impact of this decision? Many Fed officials at the time expressed concerns, believing such a commitment was too aggressive. What was the result? Inflation eventually soared to 7%, and the rate hike window was forcibly missed.

What is the practical impact on the digital asset space?

First, the pace of future rate cuts may be slower and more cautious than market expectations. After this document was exposed, the Fed’s credibility took a hit, meaning they will be more conservative when making new commitments. Based on the trajectory of the dot plot, the number of rate cuts in 2025 might only be two, and the timing could be pushed back to the fall.

Second, the "data dependence" excuse will be used more frequently. Policy uncertainty is rising, and if inflation data shows signs of rebound, the Fed may change its stance faster than you think.

From a trading perspective, liquidity conditions in the short term are unlikely to loosen significantly, which puts pressure on risk assets. A more pragmatic approach is to diversify and stagger spot positions, resolutely avoid high leverage operations. Focus on large-cap assets like $BTC, $ETH to adopt a defensive strategy, waiting for clearer policy signals.

This history also serves as a reminder—every macro policy decision can change the market landscape years later. Currently, market volatility is increasing, and managing risks well is more important than anything else.