#比特币周期规律 Three major events to watch in 2026, as they will directly determine how you manage your positions.

First is the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace. The market generally bets on 2-3 rate cuts, with key months concentrated in the first half of the year, especially in June when the new chairperson presides over the meeting for the first time, with the highest probability. At the same time, the Fed is restarting its government bond purchase program (RMP mechanism), at $40 billion per month, signaling liquidity release. The TGA account is also continuously injecting liquidity, having released over $100 billion. Simply put, money is flowing into the market.

Second is Japan's rate hikes causing disruption. The Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise rates again within half a year, but don't worry too much. First, the market has already anticipated this, so it won't be as unexpected as last year; second, the Fed is cutting rates on the other end, and the narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate differential will offset the impact of Japan's rate hikes; third, the overall direction of liquidity is more important. If the US liquidity faucet is turned on sufficiently, Japan's tightening effects will be largely offset. Of course, there will still be short-term volatility, but in the medium to long term, the total global liquidity is the key variable.

Finally, the mid-term elections in November. Trump must make the economic data look good before the election, so policy benefits will be concentrated in the first half of the year—tariff dividends, fiscal stimulus, accelerated rate cuts. This is directly positive for risk assets, including the crypto space. But in the second half, if polls show the Democrats leading, the market will price this in advance, and adjustment pressures will arise.

To summarize: the first half is a window of opportunity with ample liquidity and policy stimulation. The second half will see increased uncertainties, requiring flexible position adjustments. Now is the time to understand the rhythm of each interaction project, so when the time window opens, you'll have the confidence to act.