January 20 Gold Price Trend Analysis: Bullish Signals Frequently Appear

This wave of gold market movement is indeed worth paying attention to. Whether from a short-term or medium- to long-term perspective, the reasons for bullishness are quite compelling. Let's analyze the underlying logic one by one.

First, the trade tensions are escalating. Trump announced that on February 1st, tariffs of 10% will be imposed on Denmark and 8 other countries, with the possibility of increasing to 25% by June. The EU is not willing to back down either, planning to impose tariffs on $93 billion worth of US goods and considering freezing US investments. Global trade uncertainties have sharply increased. Against this backdrop, investors naturally turn their attention to gold — the most traditional and effective safe-haven asset.

Second, geopolitical risks such as the Middle East situation, US-China conflicts, and Iran issues have not subsided. The geopolitical premium has a direct and immediate impact on pushing up gold prices.

Looking at the Federal Reserve, although interest rates remained unchanged in January, the market is firmly expecting 2-3 rate cuts by 2026. Interestingly, with Powell under investigation and Trump frequently pressuring the Fed, questions are being raised about the Fed’s policy independence and continuity. The dollar’s credibility is consequently undermined, directly reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

The global central bank gold-buying spree is also a major factor. Data shows that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold holdings by 2026. This reflects that, in the context of dollar de-dollarization, countries regard gold as a ballast for foreign exchange reserves. The long-term support is thus well established.

Finally, internal issues within the US are also fermenting. The congressional budget deal remains unresolved, and a government shutdown could be triggered at the end of the month; US debt continues to expand, with default concerns rising. Market risk-averse sentiment is intensifying, and funds are rapidly shifting from US assets to gold.

From a technical perspective, on the 4-hour chart, the $4700 level is a short-term critical dividing line and the main battleground between bulls and bears. The strong support levels are at $4640-4650, with the defensive line for bulls at $4612-4618. As long as this range holds steady, the momentum for a new upward push will be sufficient. On smaller timeframes, gold’s upward momentum remains strong.

Morning trading strategy: Confidently go long within the $4640-4650 range, with initial targets at $4690-4710. If a strong rally like Monday’s occurs, the morning target can be directly set at $4750-4770.