2026-01-20 01:30:38

Recently, there has been an interesting phenomenon. Since 2025, the market has not risen as expected. But this perhaps precisely indicates one thing—cryptocurrencies are gradually evolving from purely speculative assets into more mature financial assets.

Does the traditional four-year cycle still hold? It seems to be less effective now. The old story of "funds flowing from Bitcoin to Ethereum, then to altcoins" has not played out this year at all. Instead, the entire market has fallen into a strange deadlock.

Retail investors' attention has shifted to the stock market, making the market extremely centralized. The data is quite interesting: the average rebound cycle for altcoins has shrunk from 60 days in 2024 to just 20 days, which is frighteningly short. What does this mean? A small number of leading assets are absorbing the vast majority of new funds, while the rest of the broad market is struggling.

So the question is—how to break this situation? To push the market beyond the ceiling of leading assets, at least one of the following three aspects must move first:

First, can ETFs and digital asset trust funds expand their investment scope beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum? Second, can flagship assets like BTC and ETH lead the rally strongly to lift the overall market sentiment? Third, can retail investors' attention shift back from the stock market to the crypto space?

The final outcome depends on—whether these catalysts can truly channel liquidity from leading assets to a broader market, or if centralization will intensify further. Understanding the possible future capital flows and the structural changes needed will directly determine the market's operational logic in 2026.

BTC-4,65%

ETH-7,81%

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ProveMyZK

· 20h ago

Basically, retail investors have been washed out, and now everyone is trading stocks. All the money is being siphoned by Bitcoin; small-cap coins are completely out of the game. Wait, doesn't that mean the trash coins I hold are going to be completely worthless? The top assets monopolize new funds, isn't this just the new trick big players use to harvest retail investors? Altcoins have a rebound cycle every 20 days—what's the point of playing? Centralization is becoming more severe; is there still a way out for retail investors? It feels like 2026 will be even tougher than 2025; I need to wait and see.

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SandwichHunter

· 20h ago

To be honest, the four-year cycle has long been history. Now it's just institutions playing, while retail investors are being left behind. How to break it? Wait for the funds to let go, otherwise it's a deadlock. ETFs are just a cover; the real money is still pouring into the top players. The rebound cycle has shortened from 60 days to 20 days, that number shocked me. Altcoins have truly become a cash machine. Liquidity is stuck at the top, isn't that the same old story from traditional finance? Coming into the crypto world and still wanting to escape? It's been twenty-five years and this pattern hasn't been broken. What does that mean? It means it can't be broken at all. Retail investors have long left the stock market; in the crypto space, only institutions are self-entertaining.

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airdrop_huntress

· 20h ago

To be honest, this wave of the market truly isn't following the usual patterns. It feels like the entire market is making a difficult turn, shifting from gambling to genuine asset allocation. The situation where top players eat the big tokens and small coins just get the leftovers needs to change, but I haven't seen any catalysts. Let's wait and see if ETFs will stir things up.

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GweiObserver

· 21h ago

Head eating pancakes, retail investors drinking soup, this is 2025 To put it simply, the four-year cycle is dead, now it's just about how big funds harvest Altcoin 20-day rebound cycle? Laughable, it should have been cleaned out a long time ago If ETFs really dare to invest in other cryptocurrencies, I might believe the institutions once again

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ServantOfSatoshi

· 21h ago

Honestly, the four-year cycle has long been broken, and this routine is no longer effective. 20-day rebound cycle for altcoins? I laughed. This is just big funds harvesting retail investors. Bitcoin and Ethereum are bloodsucking machines, making it extremely hard for other coins to survive. Wait, will retail investors really return to the crypto space? Stocks are also being cut. Centralization is becoming more severe. How can small coins turn around? Expanding the ETF scope? The problem is, is anyone willing to invest? This situation can't be broken; funds will only stick to the top few. The crypto world has already become institutionalized; retail investors are still dreaming.

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MainnetDelayedAgain

· 21h ago

Cut from 60 days to 20 days? The pace is intense, feels like we're undergoing an extreme compression test. Retail investors should wake up, or they'll continue to be devoured by top assets. Wait, does this mean the four-year cycle has been postponed? I suggest it be recorded in the Guinness World Records. Liquidity centralization will eventually reach some kind of balance... waiting patiently for the bloom. Looking at these data, I can't help but think about where the stories of altcoins have gone; it's been... how many days since the last "rotation" promise?

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