Analysis: Will Bitcoin surpass $100,000 in the short term?

Source: CritpoTendencia Original Title: Analysis: Will Bitcoin surpass $100,000 in the short term? Original Link: On January 14, Bitcoin surpassed $97,000 for the first time since November of last year. This surge occurred amid record inflows into ETFs and the postponement of a key tariff ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $95,400, with daily gains of 0.4%, weekly gains of 5.4%, and monthly gains of 8.1%. A clearly positive scenario for the market.

Despite the bullish movement over the past week, the push toward $100,000 has encountered a solid resistance zone that has so far been difficult to break through.

What is behind the current levels and how feasible is it to see $100,000 in the short term?

Several factors explain Bitcoin’s current levels and could drive the BTC price toward $100,000 in the short term.

The CLARITY Act, a bipartisan U.S. project focused on transparency and oversight of the crypto sector, will hold a preliminary hearing in the Senate on January 27. The goal is to clarify the regulatory framework, which could facilitate greater institutional participation.

Major investors seem to be increasing their exposure to Bitcoin again, after several weeks of irregular flows that preceded the recent demand surge for ETFs. The largest daily inflow since October 6 was recorded on Tuesday, when U.S. ETFs accumulated net inflows of $753.73 million.

The Russell 2000 index, which groups small-cap companies, hit all-time highs between December 2025 and January 2026, with an accumulated increase of over 40% in 2025. Historically, Russell 2000 rallies have coincided with capital inflows into the crypto market, as both respond to a greater appetite for risk assets.

Beyond these factors, macroeconomic conditions show no significant changes compared to the previous month, especially with the Federal Reserve seemingly inclined to keep interest rates unchanged for now.

BTC Chart Analysis: A Decisive Stage

If BTC is rejected at the current trading range between $94,000 and $95,000, the market could correct toward the previous zone around $88,000-$89,000. Conversely, a clear breakout above the January 14 high of $97,900 could initiate a new bullish phase, with the potential to push the price above $100,000.

Resistances to watch:

• $95,973: immediate resistance and daily high.
• $97,900: key short-term level and the highest recorded in 2026.
• $100,000: the most relevant psychological and symbolic level, though not the strongest from a technical standpoint.

Supports to monitor:

• $94,448: immediate support and the low marked on January 18.
• $92,287: intermediate point, confluence with the 200 EMA.
• $89,326: main support, aligned with the lows of January 8.

Meanwhile, the RSI around 55 points indicates that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold. This suggests the market still has room to move in both directions, without a clear exhaustion signal.

Important Data to Keep in Mind for Bitcoin

Between January 12 and 15, 2026, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States accumulated net inflows exceeding $1.7 billion.

According to Polymarket, Bitcoin has a 16% probability of reaching $105,000 before February and a 40% chance of recovering $100,000 before February 1.

From a historical perspective, February has shown better performance for Bitcoin, with average returns of 13.12%. In contrast, January tends to be a more moderate month, with an average gain of 4.18% since 2013.

The total open interest in BTC futures currently, as of January 18, ranges between $58 billion and $60 billion, high levels reflecting strong leverage use and high market sensitivity to sharp movements.

Conclusion: Will BTC reach $100,000 in the short term?

Bitcoin is in a phase supported by solid fundamentals that could lead to a move toward $100,000 in the short term, although without definitive technical confirmation yet.

Strong ETF capital inflows, renewed institutional interest, a regulatory environment that could become clearer in the U.S., and a relatively stable macroeconomic context create a favorable scenario for an upward breakout.

However, as long as the price does not clearly and sustainably break above the resistance around $97,900, the move toward $100,000 remains an open possibility but not guaranteed.