At 3 a.m., my phone vibrated. A friend sent a voice message, speaking hurriedly: "I heard the Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates in October. Should I put all my assets into mainstream coins?" The voice on the other end was trembling.

I can understand this anxiety. But after ten years of navigating the crypto market, I have to be honest: every move the Federal Reserve makes is never the "secret to overnight wealth" for retail investors.

**The Tug-of-War Behind Policy**

On the surface, the market is betting real money—over a 95% chance of a rate cut, which is almost a certainty. But open the minutes of the Federal Reserve meetings, and you'll see a different picture. The dovish side insists on pushing for a "50 basis point cut to save the economy," while the hawkish side slams the table warning that "inflation could rebound." In the end, they settle on a 25 basis point cut, like a bubble tea shop asking how much sugar you want, ultimately giving half-sugar—trying to appease the market but also fearing triggering inflation.

This "squeezing toothpaste" style of operation perfectly exposes the Fed's dilemma: recently criticized for flooding the market with liquidity and causing "dollar devaluation," then worried that insufficient rate cuts could be seen as "failing to act," leading to accusations of "not saving the economy." As a result, the market splits into two camps. The optimists shout, "Dollar weakening, Bitcoin soaring is imminent," while the conservatives sneer, "This small move can't even plug the financing gap for small businesses. If inflation strikes back, isn't that just pouring gasoline on the fire?"

**Is a rate cut really the "panacea" for the crypto market?**

Don’t be fooled by appearances. While rate cuts do lower borrowing costs and attract funds into high-risk assets, historical data will slap you in the face—