#比特币周期规律 Looking at the data for 2024, it’s quite interesting. After the halving, BTC hit a high of 126,000, and now it has fallen over 30%. This is the first time in history that a one-year decline has followed a halving.

The previous pattern was very clear—after halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, prices reached new highs, showing strong cyclicality. But this time, it’s different.

The key variables have changed. Previously driven by retail investor sentiment, now institutional ETFs and corporate balance sheets are involved. The weights of macro factors like liquidity, interest rates, and geopolitical issues are increasing. The expected effects of supply reduction are weakening and being overshadowed by more complex market structures.

Therefore, the idea of a "four-year cycle death" is too absolute. A more accurate understanding is that the drivers of the cycle are evolving; the purely programmatic logic of halving no longer works, but the cyclical structure may still exist, just in a new form.

What does this mean? When analyzing on-chain data moving forward, you can’t focus solely on the halving date. You need to also consider macro liquidity, institutional holdings changes, large transfer patterns, and other details. The signal’s validity period has shortened, requiring more frequent updates to your assessments.