The direction of the crypto market next week will mainly be determined by a series of global economic data releases. Rather than being driven by sentiment, it’s more accurate to say this is a thoroughly data-driven week—each report could reshape market expectations.

First, let’s look at Monday. The US Martin Luther King Jr. Day means the stock market will be closed, and liquidity will inevitably decrease. In such an environment, what is most likely to happen? Chasing gains and selling losses. The market is prone to run short, and retail investors are most likely to get caught in traps. So it’s best to stay on the sidelines and observe.

On Tuesday, a highlight is Trump’s appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos. On the surface, he’s attending the conference, but in reality, everyone is waiting for his “hot takes.” Any aggressive statements related to trade, the dollar, or policies will trigger short-term volatility. The market has always been sensitive to such signals.

The real key is Wednesday. The US will release four major data points simultaneously: November core PCE Price Index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, targeting 2%), Q3 GDP growth rate (a mirror of the economy’s true strength), Personal Consumption Expenditures (which influence both growth and inflation), and Initial Jobless Claims (a barometer of labor market cooling). The simultaneous release of these four data points will have a significant impact on rate expectations, the dollar’s trend, and US stock performance. As risk assets, cryptocurrencies tend to fluctuate sharply following such expectation shifts.

By Friday, the Bank of Japan’s decision will become another focal point. If Japan’s core CPI continues to rise, the central bank will consider adjusting its rate hike pace. Even if a rate hike is unlikely, the governor’s tone should be watched—any hawkish signals are worth noting. Meanwhile, PMI data from Europe and the US, inflation expectations, and consumer confidence indices will also be released one after another.

In summary: next week, it’s not about absolute values but whether the data deviates from expectations. The US PCE data and the Bank of Japan’s stance are the two main focuses, while other data mainly serve to confirm whether a trend change is truly happening. For crypto market participants, keeping an eye on these data points is much more reliable than guessing sentiment.