Recently, there has been an interesting market phenomenon: since November 2025, new investors have been stuck in unrealized losses. This conclusion comes from the STH-NUPL indicator (simply put, it measures the profit and loss status of newcomers and short-term holders). Data shows that for new investors to break even, Bitcoin needs to rise above $98,000.

It sounds a bit harsh, but in the context of history, this is actually a quite common characteristic of bear markets. The 2018 major bear market provided us with a complete script: the STH-NUPL indicator fell to around -0.6, during which short-term traders were forced to sell at a loss, with a large volume of loss-making orders executed, and the market was filled with despair. Ultimately? It was this wave of weak hands being cleared out that completely washed out the speculative bubble and laid the foundation for the subsequent bull market.

The 2022 FTX collapse bear market was even more extreme — realized losses among short-term holders hit a record high. But the turning point came quickly: after all the weak hands exited, the price stabilized around $16,000, and then a new bull cycle began.

By now, you probably understand: when the market is full of losses among newcomers and speculative funds are being continuously cleansed, it often signals that the bottom is flashing. Should you add to your position at this time? That depends on your risk tolerance and your judgment of the market's future.