2026-01-20 01:21:58

Citigroup Japan Market Business Leader Akira Hoshino recently expressed some noteworthy views.

He believes that if the yen continues to weaken, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates three times this year — a move sufficient to shake the market. Specifically, once the USD/JPY breaks through the key level of 160, the Bank of Japan is likely to act in April, raising the uncollateralized overnight borrowing rate by 25 basis points to 1%.

What’s next? If the yen exchange rate remains weak, a second rate hike could occur in July, also by 25 basis points. In a more aggressive scenario, there could even be a third rate hike before the end of the year.

Hoshino provided a logical chain: "The fundamental reason for the yen's weakness is negative real interest rates. If the central bank wants to change this situation, raising interest rates is almost the only way." That sounds reasonable — after all, in a negative interest rate environment, holding yen is indeed unattractive.

Looking ahead for the year, Hoshino expects the yen to fluctuate within the range of 150 to 165, oscillating slightly below 150 and slightly above 165. This is another variable that those concerned with exchange rate-sensitive assets should keep an eye on.

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NftRegretMachine

· 1h ago

Is the Japanese Yen about to rise? Alright, just another old trick by the central bank. Three rate hikes? What's going on, does the Bank of Japan have to follow suit? Breaking 160 before raising rates, sounds like they’re being forced. Is it true that negative interest rates are the root cause? Then why not say so earlier? The Yen swings between 150 and 165, it just irritates me to watch. Rate hikes, rate hikes, all to stabilize the Yen. Whether this guy’s predictions are accurate or not, let’s just observe for now. Three rate hikes by the end of the year? That’s just a dream. Can the Bank of Japan really be that ruthless? I’m not so sure. Same old theory again, negative interest rates → rate hikes, too predictable.

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HorizonHunter

· 8h ago

Three rate hikes? Japan is really serious this time --- Breaking the 160 barrier, does the central bank dare to act? Betting five bucks --- Are negative interest rate environmentalists finally waking up? --- Fluctuating between 150 and 165... another guessing game --- Whether the yen can turn around depends on the Fed's stance; what can the central bank's rate hike do --- Hoshino's words sound reasonable, but does the market really cooperate this way? --- I want to see what happens after three rate hikes, see you in July --- Another prediction and range, still waiting for the dollar to speak

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AirdropHarvester

· 8h ago

Three rate hikes? The Bank of Japan is really serious this time --- Once the 160 level breaks, the yen will take off. Brothers holding yen, get ready for some hardship --- Negative interest rates are environmentally friendly, raising interest rates is the real solution. This logic makes sense --- Fluctuating between 150-165, hedge funds are about to make a killing again --- Hoshino speaks quite frankly, whether the Bank of Japan can hold on is the key --- It's another currency war, central banks around the world are fighting each other --- Three rate hikes at the end of the year? The market might be shaking things up. Retail investors should be cautious when bottom fishing --- The yen has been weak for so long, finally showing signs of a reversal --- Only 150 to 165? Even traders are exhausted from this range --- Feels like the Bank of Japan has been cornered. The Fed's move is ruthless

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NotAFinancialAdvice

· 8h ago

The yen is playing the heartbeat game again, three rate hikes? This pace is incredible --- Breakthrough at 160 before taking action? It feels like the Bank of Japan is really backed into a corner --- Negative interest rate vicious cycle, there's really no way out, raising rates might be the only solution --- Rebounding between 150 and 165, for those holding yen, it's a living torment --- Hoshino's analysis is pretty good, but whether the market will follow the script is another matter --- Three rate hikes by the end of the year? The Bank of Japan's schedule for this year is going to blow up --- I'm curious if the yen's appreciation will have any ripple effects on cryptos --- The idea of negative real interest rates really hits the point, no wonder no one wants to hold yen --- With such a wide exchange rate range, the volatility space is huge, traders need to get busy --- If the Bank of Japan actually makes three moves, it's not just an adjustment, it's a sign of a major change

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Whale_Whisperer

· 8h ago

Is a 160 break followed by three consecutive rate hikes? The Bank of Japan really dares to do that. --- After holding negative interest rates for so long, it's time to bleed. --- The yen fluctuating between 150-165, this is the chance to short the market. --- Three rate hikes? Come on, hawkish talk is just talk, it won't happen that quickly in reality. --- It's the same old logic: low interest rates → holding cash is pointless → rate hikes. The old routine. --- From 150 to 165, definitely a trapped zone. Are you sure this brother didn't miscalculate the data? --- Citibank still carries weight when speaking in Japan, but will the market listen? That's another story. --- If USD/JPY really breaks 160 this time, Asia will blow up. --- Negative real interest rates are indeed awkward, but with Japan's fiscal situation, does the central bank dare to go all out? --- Three rate hikes by the end of the year? I bet five bucks they'll only raise once by half a point.

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QuorumVoter

· 8h ago

Is the Bank of Japan really going to take serious action? Three rate hikes sound intense, but there's nothing they can do in a negative interest rate environment.

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