2026-01-20 01:21:04

According to CME Federal Funds Futures data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's recent policy direction are relatively conservative. The probability of a rate cut in January is minimal, only 5%, with the vast majority of traders betting on rates remaining unchanged (95%). Looking ahead to March, the market's expected probability of a rate cut has increased but remains cautious—only a 20.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut, while the probability of maintaining rates still dominates at 78.4%. The more aggressive expectation of a 50 basis point double cut is almost nonexistent (0.9%). This indicates that the market's expectation for the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance at the beginning of the year is quite certain, with limited room for rate cuts in the short term. For the crypto market, this relatively tight liquidity outlook will continue to exert pressure on risk asset valuations.

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MetaverseLandlord

· 8h ago

Oh no, we have to keep bearing high interest rates. When will this life have an end? --- The Federal Reserve is really determined to tighten, so we crypto enthusiasts will continue to be squeezed. Just wait and see. --- There's a 95% chance it will stay unchanged. The data is very harsh, and there's no hope in sight for the short term. --- Liquidity is so tight, the valuation pressure in the crypto circle is enormous. No wonder prices haven't been rising much lately. --- I laughed at the double cut of 0.9%. That's simply impossible. --- It seems we have to wait until spring to have a chance. Right now, it's just a period of suffering. --- Why does it always happen like this? Why does the Federal Reserve always seem to be against us? --- The hawkish stance persists throughout the year. Crypto market, just lie flat, everyone.

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MetaverseVagrant

· 8h ago

Here we go again, the Fed will continue with a hard landing, and our crypto circle still has to keep getting messed with.

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just_here_for_vibes

· 8h ago

The Federal Reserve's tough stance remains unchanged. The crypto market is probably going to be gasping for air now.

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NFT_Therapy

· 8h ago

Oh my, I have to stay up a bit longer again. Looking at these data, Daddy Mei clearly has no intention of letting go.

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CoinBasedThinking

· 8h ago

The Federal Reserve is determined to keep us going until we die, with a 95% probability of holding steady. When will this end? --- Looking at these data, rate cuts are nowhere in sight, and the crypto market still has to endure the pressure. --- The probability of a double cut of 0.9%? Basically nonexistent, the hawkish stance will continue. --- Liquidity tightening is something we should have anticipated long ago. The question is, when can we finally breathe a sigh of relief? --- Forget about January; even March doesn't look optimistic. It seems the entire Q1 will have to pass under this pressure. --- From this perspective, short-term risk assets shouldn't expect a rebound; we won't get through this cycle. --- With a 95% chance of remaining unchanged, traders' bets are too consistent, something feels off. --- The crypto market continues to take hits, liquidity pressure is immense. When will the bottom come?

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AirdropChaser

· 8h ago

The Federal Reserve still wants to act hawkish, with a 95% probability of remaining unchanged... This is outrageous. How long will my coins be locked?

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FloorPriceNightmare

· 8h ago

There's a 95% chance it will stay unchanged, which is telling us to continue enduring the tightening measures... Don't expect any interest rate cuts to rescue the market in the short term.

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