#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 1.20 Gold Price Trend Analysis

From the 4-hour chart, the upward framework for gold is still intact, and the bullish structure has not been broken. The 4700 level is very critical—it serves as both a strong resistance in this phase and a dividing line between bulls and bears. To truly break through it, two conditions must be met: one is that the 4-hour candlestick closes firmly above this price level, and the other is that the trading volume must increase to at least 1.2 times the recent average level. Whether this breakout can succeed will directly influence the subsequent market direction.

The support logic here is very clear. The 4650 zone is the short-term lifeline, and 4618 is the position that the bullish trend must hold. It should be clarified that as long as 4618 does not experience a genuine and effective breakdown (a decline of ≥1-2 dollars, with two consecutive 4-hour periods closing below this level), then any pullback is merely a correction within the upward trend and should not be considered a trend reversal signal.

From the momentum indicators, the upward momentum of the bulls has not shown obvious signs of weakening. Coupled with the current support from the macroeconomic environment internationally, the medium-term outlook remains bullish. However, trading is very important—always "go with the trend," strictly follow the "4-hour level for timing," and avoid being driven by emotions or blindly chasing highs.

Trading Strategy

Bullish Entry: Look for opportunities to go long around the 4650 zone, with a stop-loss placed below 4618. The first target range is 4690-4710; once reached, take partial profits. If the 4700 level is truly broken with volume continuing to stay above 1.1 times the recent average, then add to the long position, aiming for a higher target of 4750.