#预测市场 Looking at the latest prediction data from Polymarket, a 27% probability of betting on Bitcoin reaching 100,000 in January is worth serious consideration. The data itself is quite interesting—there's a 91% chance of hitting 90,000, but only 27% for 100,000. This steep drop reflects the market's true expectation divergence.

From a copy-trading perspective, data from prediction markets can be very valuable for traders. Those daring enough to heavily bet on 100,000 with only a 27% chance are either leveraging an informational advantage or are high-risk, high-reward gamblers. My experience suggests that the former is worth closely monitoring, while the latter requires strict risk management and position sizing.

The key is not to be fooled by the probability numbers. Prediction markets reflect the collective judgment of participants, but that doesn't equate to market truth. I've seen many sophisticated analyses collapse instantly in the face of breaking news. The most reliable approach is to find experts who balance extreme and conservative predictions—they usually have both ambition and risk management skills.

The probability of a drop to 85,000 and 80,000 are 68% and 30%, respectively. This comparison actually signals that the market is much more certain about downside than upside. In such uncertainty, copy-trading strategies should lean conservative, even if optimistic, leaving enough room for stop-losses.