#Strategy加仓BTC $BTC

Where will gold ultimately fall?

Recently, gold has caused quite a stir. Not long ago, we said gold would pull back, and after a slight correction at the beginning of the week, it started to rally again. But what happened? After reaching $4379 and $4381, it suddenly plummeted.

The data is striking—yesterday, international gold prices dropped nearly $300 in a single day, and domestic prices fell about 62 yuan per gram, the largest single-day decline in nearly twelve years. Interestingly, the US dollar's rally wasn't fierce, so why did gold fall so sharply? Simply put, there are too many profit-takers, all wanting to lock in gains.

There are several behind-the-scenes drivers: First, geopolitics—Trump said he would discuss a trade agreement with China, easing tensions. There were also reports of progress in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. This directly weakened the demand for safe-haven assets, making gold less attractive. Second, technical pressure—algorithmic trading led to automatic liquidations, and forced exits from over-leveraged positions accelerated the decline.

The lowest point was $4004 per ounce, and domestically, the lowest was 917 yuan per gram. But what’s happening here? Gold prices found support at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart, leaving a clear wick. What does this indicate? Possibly some investors are bottom-fishing.

Currently, gold is fluctuating around $4069. The key in the next two days is whether it can break through the $4000 level. If it does, the decline may continue; if it holds, then the 4004 low could be a stage bottom, and perhaps it will rally to new highs again. The 917 yuan in the domestic market follows the same logic—holding support could lead to a rebound.

This is how the market is—break support, and it will continue to fall; hold support, and a reversal could happen. It all depends on how gold prices perform next.