#比特币2026年行情展望 Ethereum 4-Hour Technical Review

As of now, ETH is hovering around 3186.69 USDT, with a 24-hour decline of 0.821%. The technical outlook shows a sideways to bearish pattern, with short-term downward pressure.

**How to interpret the moving average system?**

The 5-day moving average (MA5) is at 3206.20, the 10-day moving average (MA10) is at 3240.75, and the 20-day moving average (MA20) is at 3273.74—these three averages are arranged from top to bottom, with the price sitting below them. What does this pattern indicate? The medium-term trend is indeed weak. The moving average system has not signaled a reversal, suggesting that the bulls still need time to regroup.

**What does the momentum indicator reveal?**

The MACD has already experienced a death cross. The DIF value is -20.25, DEA is -4.98, and the histogram shows -15.26—all pointing in the same direction—downward momentum is still being released, with no clear signs of weakening.

BOLL bands offer another perspective. The price is near the lower band, with %B at only 0.09%, and the bandwidth has shrunk to 0.07%. This reflects two phenomena: first, volatility is decreasing; second, the price is at a relatively low level.

The RSI is in oversold territory across the board. RSI6 is at 23.11, RSI12 at 33.71—typical oversold zones. But note—oversold conditions do not necessarily mean an immediate rebound; we need to look for divergence signals. Currently, no obvious bullish divergence is observed. The J value of KDJ is only 2.13, very close to the bottom, hinting at a potential short-term rebound opportunity, but the magnitude and sustainability of such a rebound remain to be seen.

**What about capital flow performance?**

This is the most interesting part. The futures market has experienced significant net outflows over 4-hour to 24-hour cycles, ranging from -2.93 billion to -6.91 billion USDT. Meanwhile, the spot market has seen a net inflow of 77.74 million USDT within 24 hours.

What does this divergence mean? Institutional investors are shorting in the futures market, but funds are entering the spot market. This could indicate a tug-of-war between bulls and bears within the market, with neither side holding a clear advantage.

**K-line pattern analysis**

Recently, four 4-hour candles formed a "Three Black Crows" pattern. The last candle has a long lower shadow, indicating some buy orders around 3165. Volume during the decline increased, with the latest 4-hour candle reaching 495,509.88 in volume—typical of a volume-driven decline. Such volume spikes often suggest concentrated selling pressure, but if subsequent volume does not increase further, the possibility of a rebound rises.

**What is the trading strategy?**

The bias leans toward shorting, but a suitable entry point needs to be identified. One approach is to wait for a rebound to the 3220-3230 resistance zone to gradually establish short positions; another is to wait for a confirmed break below 3165 support to enter short positions.

Stop-loss for shorts can be set around 3290, with a risk control of about 3.5%. The first target is at 3140, the second at 3090. If reached smoothly, this trade could yield a 5-8% profit.

**Risk reminder**

Currently, the price is near a key support level, and the market is in a sensitive zone. Strict position management and risk control are essential. This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Trade cautiously.