$1.2 billion hanging overhead: ETH breaking $3,338 will trigger a massive liquidation

According to the latest news, if ETH breaks through $3,338, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.207 billion. Conversely, if it falls below $3,041, the long liquidation strength will reach $757 million. This means ETH’s current price is between two high-risk levels, and any breakout in either direction could trigger a large-scale chain reaction of liquidations.

Liquidation Map: Two Key Price Levels

Based on Coinglass data, ETH’s liquidation risk is concentrated in two price ranges:

The current ETH price is $3,178.59, situated between these two levels. This symmetrical liquidation structure reflects that market participants have established substantial positions on both sides.

Why Is the Upward Liquidation Pressure Greater?

The short liquidation strength of $1.207 billion is about 59% higher than the long liquidation strength of $757 million. This difference indicates several issues:

• The size of short positions is larger, possibly reflecting cautious sentiment about recent market trends
• Once the price breaks above the level, forced short covering will create positive feedback, pushing prices higher
• The trigger cost for an upward breakout is relatively low, requiring only a 4.7% increase

Recent information shows that ETH has indeed been volatile lately. On January 17, ETH broke above $3,300, reaching a high of $3,303.74, just one step away from the $3,338 liquidation point. This near miss has heightened market pressure above.

Market Risk Assessment

Two key issues deserve attention:

Chain reaction of liquidations

Once ETH breaks above $3,338, the $1.207 billion short liquidation will not happen all at once but will trigger in layers. Initial small-scale liquidations will push prices higher, triggering more liquidations and accelerating the upward movement. Historically, similar situations often lead to rapid short-term gains of 5-10%.

Behavior of market participants

According to the latest data, major whales currently hold over $900 million in leveraged long positions in ETH, BTC, and SOL, with accumulated profits close to $135 million. This indicates that large players are relatively optimistic about the longs and may defend key levels or add to their positions. Additionally, the amount of ETH staked has increased by 38.4% over the past year, suggesting that long-term holders are increasing, which could limit selling pressure.

Summary

ETH is currently at the center of the liquidation map, with obvious risk points both above and below. The $1.207 billion upward liquidation strength suggests that a breakout above $3,338 could trigger a rapid rally. However, overall market sentiment remains relatively bullish, with increasing long-term holdings, which may support the price in the mid-to-upper range. In the short term, the key is to observe whether ETH can stabilize above $3,300. If it can break through the $3,338 liquidation point, a new upward trend may be initiated.