BTC is stuck in the $1.36 billion liquidation intensity zone, with bulls and bears competing at a critical level.

According to the latest news, BTC is currently in a highly symmetrical liquidation strength zone—if it falls below $88,510, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.36 billion; if it breaks above $97,036, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.346 billion. Currently, BTC is priced at $92,359.57, right near the midpoint of this approximately $8,500 range, which means that whether it breaks upward or downward, a large-scale liquidation wave close in scale will be triggered.

Risk Symmetry of Price Position

Two liquidation strengths are highly symmetrical

According to Coinglass data, this round of liquidation strength exhibits rare symmetry:

This symmetry indicates that both long and short positions in the market are highly concentrated, with both sides deploying large leverage positions at critical levels. My personal view is that this symmetrical liquidation strength often signals that the market is at a decision point—any breakout in either direction could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations.

The delicate position of the current price

BTC’s current price of $92,359.57 sits between the two liquidation strengths, making this position particularly sensitive. In the past 24 hours, the price has decreased by 0.08%, and over the past 7 days, it has increased by 1.05%, showing clear oscillation characteristics. According to related information, this oscillation reflects a divergence in market sentiment—Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in negative premium for three consecutive days (currently -0.0397%), indicating increasing selling pressure in the US market and a decline in investor risk appetite.

Market Background and Risk Release Signals

Recent sharp decline has liquidated a wave

It’s important to note that the market has experienced a sharp decline in recent days. According to related news, on the morning of January 19, BTC briefly dropped from $95,500 to $92,474, a decline of over 3%, which directly triggered $750 million in long liquidations. This shows that leverage positions in the market are actively releasing risk, but the current long liquidation strength of $1.36 billion remains high, indicating that a large number of long positions are still waiting to be liquidated at lower levels.

Changes in capital flows and leverage ratios

On-chain data shows that in the past 24 hours, CEXs have a net outflow of 1,729.96 BTC, with Kraken outflow of 2,394.43 BTC, Bybit outflow of 395.37 BTC, and Binance inflow of 793.77 BTC. This flow difference reflects varying risk preferences across platforms. Additionally, data indicates that open interest has decreased, suggesting leverage is reducing—usually a sign of deleveraging. However, liquidation strength remains high, implying that although overall leverage is decreasing, remaining leveraged positions are more concentrated.

Whales’ bottom-fishing signals

Interestingly, last Friday, a whale with a large position of $33 million long on BTC, after being liquidated for $25.83 million, quickly shifted into about 169 ETH spot and reopened a BTC long with 40x leverage, with a new position size of $38.7 million. This behavior hints that big funds in the market remain optimistic about the future, even after liquidations, actively bottom-fishing.

Two Key Scenarios for Future Trends

Based on the current distribution of liquidation strength, the future may unfold in two ways:

• Break above $97,036: Once BTC breaks this level, it will trigger $1.346 billion in short liquidations, which could push prices higher, with short-term targets around $98,000 to $100,000. Related news suggests such breakouts often lead to chain reactions of short squeezes.

• Drop below $88,510: If the price falls to this level, it will trigger $1.36 billion in long liquidations, potentially accelerating the decline. Medium-term support levels could be at $92,000, $90,000, and other key points.

Summary

BTC is currently in an extremely unique position—liquidation strengths in both directions exceed $1.3 billion, forming a highly symmetrical “cliff” structure. This not only reflects the relative strength of bulls and bears but also indicates that the market is at a critical decision point. Recent sharp declines and whale bottom-fishing behaviors are signals being released, but the ultimate direction depends on whether the price can break through either of these two key levels. For investors, the most important thing now is to closely monitor BTC’s performance at $88,510 and $97,036, as any breakout could trigger rapid market changes. In the short term, increased volatility is likely, making risk management especially crucial.