Good morning everyone! The current market is indeed dancing on the edge of a knife, with significant volatility. Many traders are pondering: will it continue to decline today or rebound? Based on last night’s overseas market performance and current technical signals, I’ll give you my conclusion—mainstream cryptocurrencies are more likely to oscillate downward, but don’t panic. This wave of adjustment is very likely a "gentle shakeout," which actually exposes many structural opportunities!

**External market pressure should not be underestimated, but don’t over-interpret it**

Yesterday, European markets collectively plunged, with tech sectors and cyclical assets leading the decline. This "external coldness" can indeed put some pressure on the open, especially affecting early trading sentiment. But we’ve seen this before; the key still depends on our fundamentals.

**What do the technicals say? The 5-day moving average has already been broken, but the 10-day is still holding**

Trading below the 5-day moving average for three consecutive days indicates that short-term upward momentum is indeed waning. But don’t be too pessimistic— the 10-day moving average is still supporting. Once that line is broken, the adjustment could really expand. The most critical factor is trading volume—although the average daily volume in the past two days has decreased, from a historical perspective, it remains in an "active" state. As long as volume doesn’t fall below a key level, the market isn’t truly cooling down.

**Market consensus is prioritizing stability; violent drops are unlikely**

Why do I say this wave of adjustment will be relatively "mild"? Because major institutions and main players are very consistent in their attitude—emphasizing stability and opposing sharp volatility. In other words, "too much decline will be supported, and excessive surges will cool down." Under this policy tone, a sudden crash is unlikely. More often, it’s a "mid-game break" after a sharp rise—digesting profits and filtering out less committed participants.

**Liquidity is indeed flowing out, but not entirely withdrawing**

It’s true that main funds have recently contracted, but don’t overlook a detail—various long-term funds are being guided into the market. These "ballast" funds, although progressing slowly, are steadily building a bottom. Plus, current trading volume levels remain high, making a "free fall" almost impossible. A more realistic scenario is a thorough consolidation at the current high levels.

**Three key points for today’s operations, get ready!**

**First, don’t chase highs; shift focus to sector rotation**

Mainstream cryptocurrencies have recently shown some "weakness," but capital isn’t idle—large flows are moving into hot concept sectors—such as AI-related crypto projects, Layer2 tracks, and infrastructure tokens friendly to policies. These sectors are indeed volatile, but also flexible enough, making buying on dips safer than chasing highs. The market now is fundamentally about structural opportunities; choosing the right sectors is more meaningful than fixating on the index.

**Second, defend key technical levels; reduce positions if broken**

For mainstream coins, a certain key moving average is today’s lifeline. If it’s broken and can’t be reclaimed within half an hour, it could trigger a panic sell-off. Those with heavy holdings should consider lightening their positions accordingly. If the price can hold above this line, even if the whole day is green or red oscillation, there’s no need to panic—opportunities for accumulation still exist. Looking at the longer term, even if there’s a correction, the market will eventually establish a low point within a reasonable range for the year.

**Third, volume is a barometer—watch key volume levels**

Current trading volume has declined somewhat but remains within a safe zone. If volume suddenly drops below a critical level, it indicates that market participation is really shrinking—be cautious about whether the market is truly cooling. As long as volume stays relatively high, sector rotation and hot spots will continue to evolve.

**Final honest note: There’s no "close your eyes and win" opportunity now, nor should you be scared by short-term fluctuations. In a oscillating market, it’s all about rhythm—dare to reduce positions after gains, dare to deploy after sharp declines. The core is to focus on those segments with concentrated funds and solid fundamentals. Don’t expect to hit the jackpot in one step; a steady rhythm beats aggressive bets.**