The Federal Reserve released the full minutes of the September 2020 meeting, a document that had been dormant for five years, which thoroughly exposed Powell's controversial decisions at the time.

The context back then was crucial—inflation was only at 1.3%, definitely not a threat. But Powell made a bold decision: to keep interest rates near zero and to publicly commit that, unless employment fully recovered and inflation consistently exceeded 2%, there would be no rate hikes.

This sparked opposition in the meeting room. Several Fed officials expressed concerns on the spot, including two Federal Reserve Chairs. Both voting and non-voting members voiced their objections. But in the end? Everyone compromised.

Why was Powell able to override all voices? The reason seems simple and straightforward—the Fed had just changed its policy framework, and he was worried that "loss of credibility" would undermine market confidence. So, to maintain credibility, he chose a stance that appeared more "committed."

History quickly provided the answer. In 2021, inflation began to surge, and by 2022, it had directly exceeded 7%. Only then did the Fed realize the problem was serious. But because the "no rate hike commitment" was still hanging over their heads, they only started raising rates in March 2022. The best timing? Long missed.

Powell himself later admitted his mistake, saying he would never make such long-term commitments again. Implicitly, that decision back then was indeed a lesson.

Looking back today, it was that impulsive decision in the meeting room that laid the groundwork for subsequent runaway inflation. The chain reactions caused by inflation—rate hike cycles, easing expectations, market volatility—still influence the Fed's every move today.

What lessons can we draw from this? Once policy signals are sent out, they can't be taken back. A single statement from the Fed can influence global financial markets for years. The current pace of rate cuts and inflation expectations management are all shadowed by this history.

What do you think? Should we play it safe and wait for opportunities to buy on dips, or take a cautious approach? Feel free to share your judgment.