The cold wave is coming, but the market heat shows no signs of cooling down. Gold prices have been performing quite aggressively recently, supported by a series of positive factors, once surging past the historical high of over $4690 per ounce. The domestic Shanghai Gold Exchange also broke through 1047 yuan/gram. The question is—how far can this rally go?

The driving forces behind this are quite clear. The global situation continues to heat up: the Trump administration has imposed a 10% tariff on eight countries including Denmark and has threatened further escalation; the Greenland issue stirs tensions within NATO; military activities in the Arctic region are intensifying. Meanwhile, the US national debt has surpassed $38.5 trillion, the Federal Reserve’s policy independence is under political pressure, and the credibility of the dollar itself is being questioned. In this context, it’s understandable that safe-haven funds are flowing into gold. The world’s largest gold ETF holdings remain high, with institutions viewing gold as a new alternative to US Treasuries.

Technical signals are somewhat subtle. Yesterday, after reaching 4690, the price entered a narrow range of consolidation at high levels without breaking higher. This indicates that 4690 has become a short-term strong resistance. Market participants are divided—some large institutions warn of "significant risks" in chasing the rally for safe-haven, while others remain optimistic about the full-year trend. Retail investors and institutions hold contrasting attitudes.

It’s worth noting that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January has reached 95%, with the rate hike pause pushed back to June. In this high-interest-rate environment, gold still faces downward pressure. Operationally, if the price cannot gap up and open above 4690 today and hold steady, it would be safer to treat this level as a rebound selling point. Support levels below should be watched at 4660, 4653, and 4640. If broken downward, further targets could be around 4620.