#永续合约交易 I recently came across an interesting analysis about the changes in the crypto market by 2025. I used to think that the crypto space was mainly driven by narratives and cyclical patterns, but now I realize things are much more complex.

It seems that the biggest change by 2025 is the diversification of funding channels—no longer just retail investors rushing into a concept they favor, but also ETFs, stablecoins, corporate treasury allocations, and crypto companies going public on the US stock market through IPOs, all connected through "mainstream" channels. The most straightforward data point is that stablecoins have expanded from $205 billion to over $300 billion, indicating that on-chain settlement capacity is truly strengthening.

The perpetual contracts segment has left me a bit puzzled—are on-chain derivatives now capable of handling monthly trading volumes of $1 trillion? And platforms like Hyperliquid, Aster, and Lighter are competing for market share, not dominated by a single player. It seems that stress testing and risk control have become critical, with trading volume being secondary.

What surprised me most is the prediction market segment. Polymarket and Kalshi's monthly trading volume can reach over $13 billion, with sports and political events becoming high-frequency trading categories. This seems to indicate that the crypto market is increasingly linked to macroeconomic and policy changes, rather than just a self-sustaining on-chain cycle.

There's also the case of Circle's IPO—raising just over $1 billion, yet the secondary market surged more than 8 times. Does this suggest that the public market indeed assigns a premium to crypto projects with real cash flow and strong risk management? But at the same time, I see clear differentiation after six months of issuance—not all projects can maintain strong momentum.

Overall, I feel 2025 will be a watershed year, shifting from "storytelling and risk appetite" to "fundamentals and cash flow analysis." This is good news for newcomers—at least they won't have to rely solely on gambling on concepts, and there are more dimensions to learn. However, leverage risk control seems to have become more complicated, with extreme market conditions making the speed and depth of leverage even more terrifying.

Can experienced folks explain what the actual impact of opening IPO channels is for retail participants? Does it mean more stability but potentially lower returns?