#比特币2026年行情展望 $XRP $DOGE $BTC $ETH

The Fed's decision from five years ago has finally been unearthed

Recently, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the September 2020 meeting, which thoroughly reveal the entire process behind a key decision at that time. During that meeting, Powell pushed for a zero interest rate policy and made a "hard commitment"—they wouldn't consider raising rates until inflation exceeded 2%. Sounds prudent? But in reality, this decision directly laid the groundwork for the subsequent inflation crisis.

There was disagreement in the meeting room. Many Fed members expressed concerns—saying that this commitment was too rigid and risky. But in the end, they followed the leader's stance. What happened next? By the time they realized they needed to tighten policy, it was too late. Inflation surged stubbornly to 7%, missing the optimal adjustment window. Looking back now, this move is like digging your own grave.

**What does this mean for the crypto world?**

First, don’t expect the Fed to cut rates quickly. Once their dark history was exposed, they became much more cautious. Don’t expect four or five rate cuts in 2025 as some institutions predicted; the reality is more likely around two, with the first opportunity around September. Liquidity easing won't come as quickly as you think.

Second, the phrase "data dependency" essentially means leaving an escape route. If inflation data rebounds next time, the Fed can change its tune. How much their commitment is worth depends on how the data jumps. This means the market will continue to sway between "rate hikes or cuts."

**How to respond in the short term?**

Expectations of tightening liquidity will put pressure on the entire risk asset sector. Both mainstream coins and smaller tokens could be under stress. But there's an interesting contrast—during stagflation, Bitcoin’s role as "digital gold" might be reevaluated. Many institutional investors will allocate BTC during such periods to hedge against traditional asset risks.

**Specific trading ideas:**

Don’t go all-in. Gradually enter positions; buy more during clear pullbacks. Leverage is still risky at this stage—stay away from it. Keep plenty of USDT or USDC on hand, ready for opportunities.

Focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two leading assets. During volatile market swings, coins with good liquidity and strong consensus tend to be more resilient.

While the expectation of liquidity tightening is bearish in the short term, this environment also accumulates the potential for the next upward wave. As long as you don’t sell everything at the bottom, there’s still a chance to turn things around. The key is to survive until that day.

What’s your take? Will Powell’s policy misstep truly change the Fed’s future attitude? Is it time to play defense or look for opportunities?