#Strategy加仓BTC Can Bitcoin double in Q1? On-chain data and policy signals point to $185,000

A research institution has provided a fresh analysis of BTC: a target price of $185,500 in Q1 2026, which still leaves nearly 100% upside from the current price. Even with short-term volatility, the overall structure remains bullish.

The underlying logic is actually simple. The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, M2 money supply has hit new highs and continues to expand — history shows that as long as liquidity is growing, Bitcoin is unlikely to enter a bear market. Plus, with Powell’s term coming to an end, the market generally expects the successor to adopt a more accommodative policy stance, which is undoubtedly positive for digital assets.

Looking at a few key drivers:

**Policy Environment Turning Warmer** — The CLARITY Act is progressing, clarifying the regulatory responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC, while also allowing traditional banks to participate in digital asset custody and staking services. This is not just lip service; it’s paving the way for large financial institutions and traditional funds to enter.

**Subtle Changes in Institutional Attitudes** — Recently, ETFs have seen $4.57 billion in outflows, but MicroStrategy and mining companies continue to buy, with chips slowly changing hands rather than panic selling.

**On-chain Indicators Reflect Rationality** — $84,000 has become a clear support level, while $98,000 is a short-term resistance. On-chain metrics have returned to a “reasonable range,” indicating the market is neither overheated nor collapsing, and the structure remains healthy.

Of course, during this cycle, when $BTC and $ETH are soaring, don’t overlook opportunities in other sectors. Pay particular attention to projects with genuine ecological foundations and community recognition, rather than chasing trends blindly.