#预测市场 Prediction markets are becoming more and more interesting! Looking at Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in January is only 27%, which reflects market participants' rational judgment of short-term trends—everyone generally believes there's a 91% chance it will hit $90,000, indicating that the consensus is actually quite clear.

This is the charm of prediction markets! They are not traditional futures or derivatives but a decentralized "arena of collective wisdom." Every participant votes with real money, and the incentive mechanisms allow information to be fully contested, making the price itself the most honest oracle. Compared to big influencers or institutional reports, this kind of collective consensus often gets closer to the market truth.

Prediction markets represent a brilliant practice of Web3 democratized finance—no intermediaries, no censorship, and no one can monopolize the discourse. Whether you're an individual investor or an institution, everything operates transparently on the chain. This sense of participation and equal power is exactly the direction of decentralized finance's future.

By the way, although this type of prediction market is still in its early stages, its potential is enormous—ranging from political elections to sports events and technological breakthroughs, all can be condensed into tradable information assets. Worth paying attention!