Recently, I've been a bit obsessed with watching the market, and my eyes are tired. The screen is constantly showing the same question: Is this current market just a normal correction in a bull market, or is a bear market silently approaching?

I still remember when I first entered the scene, listening to some veterans talk about the four-year cycle of bull and bear markets, and I thought it was all too mystical. But after this wave of market decline, all doubts have vanished—because the truth isn't in words, it's in the accounts. Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 to 94,000, and those smaller coins fared even worse, with declines everywhere—halved, 20% off, 10% off, all common sights. When such scenes occur, anyone claiming the market hasn't changed is really just talking nonsense with their eyes wide open.

The most warning sign for me happened at the beginning of the month. At that time, BTC stubbornly held at 110,000 and refused to move, while various altcoins skyrocketed, with 2-3x returns, wildly attracting retail investors. This scene is exactly the same as the prelude to the 2021 bear market. I warned about risks in the community back then, and was bombarded by a crowd. Looking back now, billions of leverage across the entire network were wiped out, and a year's worth of gains were wiped clean overnight.

Looking at the timeline longer-term, we are now in the 18th month after the halving cycle. Every time we reach this point, market sentiment inevitably shifts like the tide. The technical signals are even clearer: both the 3-year moving average and the yearly line have been broken, and the 72,000 level is like the Damocles sword hanging overhead, ready to fall at any moment. Plus, the macro environment isn't looking good: the rate cut expectations have completely cooled down, hawkish statements from central banks are everywhere, liquidity is gradually tightening, and the so-called "Christmas rally" at the end of the year probably won't happen.

ETF buying continues, indicating the market isn't completely dead yet, but those controlling large amounts of chips are already pulling back, waiting to see which way the wind blows. Instead of obsessing over whether this is a bull or bear market right now, it's better to focus on stabilizing your position.

Real opportunities never come when everyone is noisy. The chances to make money always quietly take root when no one is paying attention or interested. So don't recklessly rush around in the dark—clarifying your direction is much more valuable than blindly charging ahead.