#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor has once again dampened the market's enthusiasm. In December, the core CPI year-over-year increased by 2.6%, the same as the previous month, but this figure was unexpectedly below the market forecast of 2.7%. The month-over-month data was also only 0.2%, failing to meet the expected 0.3%.

Does this mean inflation is cooling down? Don't get too excited. The market reaction has actually been quite calm—10-year U.S. Treasury yields slightly declined, the dollar initially fell then rose, and the stock market showed little change. According to CME data, investors still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the first time in June, with the number of rate cuts remaining at two.

The key question is: Is this moderate CPI data truly a sign of cooling inflation, or just an illusion? Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley both pointed out that it might just be technical factors causing the fluctuations. The IT goods category dropped by 2.16% that month, and wireless communication services fell sharply by 3.33%. Such volatility is not sustainable and does not reflect the real inflation pressure.

So, will the Federal Reserve turn to aggressive easing because of one month of soft data? Probably not. The core CPI is still well above the long-term target of 2%, and there is widespread concern that growth in money supply and fiscal expansion could push inflation higher by 2026. A single month's mild performance is not enough to shake the Fed's policy stance.