To those traders who frequently operate in the market but always end up losing — I’ve been immersed in the crypto market for years and have seen too many people start out looking competent, only to lose so much they can’t face it. Today, I want to talk about the harshest reality: opening positions without seeing the trend clearly is like driving blindfolded.

**Chasing highs and selling lows is gambling**

What is a common problem among many traders? Seeing a single bullish candle on the 5-minute chart and rushing in immediately. And what happens? Most of the time, you get caught at a high right after entering. Why does this happen? The fundamental reason is that you simply don’t understand what stage the market is currently in.

For example, if the market is still in the accumulation phase, with prices testing the bottom repeatedly, and you insist on treating it as a breakout and chase the move, who will get hurt? Certainly you. Conversely, when distribution begins, big funds have already started quietly offloading their positions, yet you’re driven by FOMO to throw money in. Who will take your order? Frankly, it’s not always about choosing the wrong coin; it’s about choosing the wrong timing. A pragmatic suggestion is: when the trend is unclear, instead of blindly trading and making bigger mistakes, it’s better to wait and see. Trading less isn’t cowardice; it’s waiting for the most certain opportunity. Once it appears, you can strike with precision.

**Trends need to be "seen," not guessed**

People often ask me whether Bitcoin will rise or fall tomorrow. My usual response is — is this exchange your home? The future direction of the market can’t be guessed; it must be observed through tools and data combined.

From a technical perspective, many classic candlestick patterns are worth paying attention to. For example, "Dark Cloud Cover" and "Evening Star" often indicate a top is near; on the other hand, "Morning Star" and "Three White Soldiers" frequently appear before a rebound. But here’s a key point: these signals must be viewed in conjunction with the overall trend of larger timeframes. If the daily chart is in a downtrend, then a golden cross on the 15-minute chart might just be a trap for chasing longs, not a genuine buy signal. Focusing only on small timeframe signals while ignoring the larger trend is a fundamental reason why many traders lose money.

From a fundamental perspective, what will institutional investors focus on in 2026? Mainly macro liquidity changes — for example, whether the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, which directly affects the tightening or loosening of global funds. There are also policy-driven factors, such as the advancement of legislation related to US stablecoins. These seemingly macro factors are actually the real engines driving the big trend in the crypto market. Traders who only watch short-term fluctuations on daily candles often miss these deeper forces that propel the market.

In summary, the market will always test your patience. Not every market phase is suitable for participation. Sometimes, the best trade is no trade at all.