The US Dollar Index at a critical juncture: Why silver and gold mining stocks will become winners

The 14-Year Support Line Is About to Break—What Is the Market Waiting For?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is testing a support level that has held for 14 years. This is not an ordinary technical level—whenever this trendline, in place since 2011, is challenged, global financial markets tend to experience intense volatility.

Market analyst John Rowland pointed out in a recent market livestream that DXY is currently hovering around 98. Once it breaks downward and closes below this level on the weekly chart, the next support zone will be far in the 92-94 range. What does this mean? It suggests that the decline of the dollar may just be beginning.

Eerie Signal: Why Is the Dollar Not Rising in Risk Environments?

Typically, when geopolitical risks escalate, the dollar strengthens as a “safe-haven asset.” But the current situation is unusual—despite global tensions, the dollar has not shown the traditional safe-haven appeal. The key truth behind this phenomenon is: Investors are fleeing the dollar.

Gold hit a new high in early 2026, and silver’s performance has been even more aggressive. What does the synchronized rise of these two precious metals usually indicate? The decline in dollar credibility and rising distrust in fiat currencies.

The Real Opponents of the Dollar: Yen, Rate Expectations, and Central Bank Selling

The pressure on the dollar is not only technical. From a fundamental perspective, at least three forces are simultaneously squeezing the dollar:

1. Disappearance of Interest Rate Advantage
The Federal Reserve may pause rate hikes or even start cutting rates in the first half of 2026. This directly weakens the dollar’s yield attractiveness. When US Treasury yields decline, the cost of holding dollars increases.

2. Increased Competition from Yen and Other Currencies
Policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan make the yen more attractive. The status of international reserve currency is no longer as secure.

3. Central Banks Systematically Selling Off Dollars
Data from the end of 2025 shows that global central banks are accelerating their accumulation of gold reserves while reducing US Treasury holdings. This trend is speeding up and, in the long term, poses a heavy blow to the dollar.

If the Dollar Truly Breaks, Who Will Take Off?

History shows that when a long-term support line collapses and the dollar begins a systemic decline, the following asset classes benefit first:

Precious Metals React First
Gold and silver will respond immediately because they are inherently inversely correlated with the dollar. But here’s a detail—silver miners tend to outperform gold miners. The reason is simple: industrial demand for silver combined with its monetary properties gives silver mining companies a double boost during dollar depreciation cycles.

Commodity Producers Gain Pricing Power
A weakening dollar means that commodities priced in other currencies will rise, directly increasing profit margins for commodity-producing companies.

Multinational Companies with Overseas Revenue Benefit
A weaker dollar makes overseas earnings of US multinationals more valuable when converted back to USD. This is positive for many tech and consumer companies in the S&P 500.

Active Risk Assets Increase
Once the dollar begins a systemic decline, liquidity often becomes more abundant, attracting capital into high-yield bonds, emerging market stocks, and cryptocurrencies.

Silver Miner ETFs: Undervalued Beneficiaries

Within the entire asset allocation chain, silver miner ETFs (such as GDX, GDXJ, and the more focused Silberminen ETF) occupy an interesting position. They can capture the direct gains from rising silver prices while also benefiting from the operational leverage of mining companies.

In other words: when silver rises from $30 to $40 per ounce, the profit margins of miners will increase far more than the price increase itself. That’s why seasoned traders often use Silberminen ETFs as core tools in dollar-decline trades.

How to Monitor This Market Drama?

If you want to track this potential market turning point, keep an eye on these key indicators:

Watch the Dollar and Precious Metals Tug-of-War

• A downward break of DXY (Dollar Index) is the trigger
• Rising GLD and SLV confirm that currency devaluation trades are underway

Uncover True Profit Opportunities

• GDX and GDXJ (Gold Miners)
• Specialized Silberminen ETFs (Silver Miners)—a niche but efficient choice
• SIL and SILJ (Pure Silver Miners)

Observe Central Bank Actions

• Continued increase in gold reserves
• Further selling of US Treasuries
• These are evidence of a long-term trend confirmation

The Time Window Is Closing

The current situation is as follows: technically, the dollar is being severely tested at a 14-year support level; fundamentally, the interest rate advantage is disappearing, central banks are selling, and competing currencies are rising. These factors don’t usually all occur simultaneously, but now they are converging.

Will DXY break below 98? This will determine the market’s rhythm over the next few months. If the break is confirmed, silver miners, gold miners, and the entire commodities sector could enter a significant upward phase.

The key point: don’t wait until the trend is fully established to react. Start observing these signals now—when the dollar index finally gives a clear direction, you will already be in the right position.