Ethereum Price Prediction: Triangle Support Faces $119M Liquidation Test

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Ethereum Price Prediction: Triangle Support Faces $119M Liquidation Test Original Link: Ethereum price today trades near $3,208 after a 2.25% decline that tested the lower boundary of a multi-week symmetrical triangle. The drop triggered significant long liquidations, but spot flows paint a different picture as buyers step in to absorb the selling.

Long Liquidations Flush Leveraged Positions

ETH Derivative Analysis (Source: Coinglass)

Derivatives markets absorbed heavy damage in the past 24 hours. According to Coinglass, $119.45 million in long positions were liquidated compared to $36.49 million in shorts. That 3:1 ratio shows that leveraged bulls got caught as price broke below intraday support.

Open interest held relatively steady at $41.51 billion, up 0.84% despite the liquidations. Trading volume spiked 139.70% to $56.53 billion, indicating aggressive activity rather than passive selling. When volume surges alongside liquidations but OI holds, it often signals rotation rather than capitulation.

The long/short ratio sits at 0.95, showing a slight short bias among retail traders. Top traders on a certain head exchange remain net long at 2.34, creating a divergence that typically resolves with sharp moves in either direction.

Spot Inflows Create Bullish Divergence

ETH Netflows (Source: Coinglass)

Exchange flow data contrasts with the bearish price action. Coinglass recorded $21.91 million in net inflows on January 19, meaning that spot holders are moving ETH off exchanges into private wallets.

When spot accumulation occurs during selloffs, it suggests that longer-term holders view the dip as an opportunity rather than a warning. This dynamic creates a potential floor under price even as short-term traders panic.

The pattern has repeated throughout January. Despite several pullbacks, spot flows have remained net positive on most sessions, building a base of accumulated supply that does not return to market during corrections.

Triangle Structure Holds At EMA Support

On the daily chart, Ethereum has traded inside a symmetrical triangle since the December low near $2,800. The pattern shows converging trendlines with price compressing between $3,100 support and $3,400 resistance.

Today’s candle tested the lower boundary but held above the 20 and 50-day EMA cluster at $3,165 to $3,187. The Bollinger Band lower boundary at $2,958 provides additional support if the triangle breaks.

Key levels now:

• Immediate support: $3,187 (20 EMA)
• Secondary support: $3,165 (50 EMA)
• Triangle support: $3,100
• Bollinger lower: $2,958
• Immediate resistance: $3,287 (100 EMA)
• Major resistance: $3,336 (200 EMA)
• Triangle upper boundary: $3,400

The structure remains neutral until one boundary breaks with conviction. A daily close below $3,100 confirms a bearish resolution and targets $2,800. A break above $3,400 signals bullish continuation toward $3,600.

Intraday Momentum Approaches Oversold

Shorter timeframes show the intensity of the selloff. On the 30-minute chart, price broke below an ascending channel that had guided the rally from $3,100 to $3,360.

RSI dropped to 35.99, approaching oversold territory. MACD remains bearish with the histogram expanding to the downside, but such readings often precede stabilization attempts.

The broken channel support near $3,280 now acts as resistance. Any bounce attempt faces this level first before reaching the $3,336 zone where the 200-day EMA converges with the upper Bollinger Band.

Outlook: Will Ethereum Hold The Triangle?

The setup favors patience. Liquidations have cleared some leverage, spot inflows provide a bid, and the triangle structure remains intact. The next 48 hours will determine whether this is a shakeout or the start of a breakdown.

Bullish case: Price bounces from the $3,165 to $3,187 EMA cluster and reclaims $3,280. A close above $3,336 breaks the 200 EMA and targets the triangle upper boundary at $3,400.

Bearish case: A daily close below $3,165 breaks the EMA support and tests triangle lower boundary at $3,100. Losing $3,100 confirms the breakdown and targets $2,958 Bollinger support.

Ethereum sits at a decision point within its consolidation range. Spot accumulation suggests underlying demand, but the technical structure requires a hold above $3,165 to maintain the bullish case.

Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.