Precious metals retreat strongly: gold per ounce plunges under pressure, silver follows downward

Significant Decline in Precious Metals Markets

On Thursday morning during U.S. trading hours, both gold and silver prices experienced a negative performance, with silver showing a particularly sharp decline. The downward movement was primarily triggered by short-term futures traders closing long positions, along with widespread profit-taking among investors. From a technical standpoint, the silver market has outlined a clearly bearish setup, creating uncertainty among those holding long positions in both metals.

February gold futures traded at $4,431.7 per ounce, down by $30.8. Meanwhile, March silver futures stood at $73.83 per ounce, marking a loss of $3.783. This dynamic reflects a context where investors are closely awaiting the annual rebalancing of commodity indices, an event that could generate selling flows worth tens of billions of dollars in the coming days.

Pressures from Index Rebalancing

According to Citigroup’s assessments, rebalancing operations could involve the sale of approximately $6.8 billion in silver futures, accompanied by similar outflows in the gold sector. These movements stem from the substantial increase in the weighting assigned to precious metals in benchmark commodity indices. This process poses a significant challenge for market participants trying to maintain their exposures.

A well-established trading principle suggests that a mature bull market requires a continuous flow of positive news to sustain itself. Currently, gold per ounce and silver seem to lack favorable catalysts capable of supporting a sustained short-term recovery.

Technical Outlook and Critical Levels

From a chart analysis perspective, February gold futures have a bullish target of closing above the all-time high of $4,584.00 per ounce. Conversely, bears aim to push prices below the technical resistance of $4,284.30 per ounce. Traders are closely monitoring the previous resistance at $4,475.20 per ounce and the psychological level of $4,500.00, while the first support is at $4,400.00, followed by the weekly low of $4,354.60 per ounce.

Regarding silver, March futures show signs of a double top reversal pattern on the daily chart. Bullish operators aim to surpass the all-time high of $82.67 per ounce, while bears seek to induce a close below $69.225 per ounce. The first resistance is at $75.00 per ounce, followed by $76.00, with immediate support at $74.00 per ounce.

U.S. Macroeconomic Context

December U.S. employment data surprised positively. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, employers announced 35,553 layoffs in December, the lowest since July 2024, representing a decrease from 71,321 in November. However, the annual picture is less encouraging: in 2025, total layoffs reached 1,206,374, up 58% from 2024, the highest since 2020. The public sector led with 308,167 reductions, while the private tech sector recorded 154,445 layoffs.

Regulatory Developments on Tariffs and Energy Policies

The U.S. Supreme Court may soon rule on the legality of tariffs implemented by the Trump administration. Lower courts have already determined that using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to support large-scale reciprocal tariffs could exceed constitutional limits. If the Supreme Court declares such measures unlawful, the U.S. government might face the need to reimburse tens of billions of dollars.

On the energy policy front, the Trump administration announced plans to acquire up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil. This move would be one of the most significant changes in the global oil market in recent years, potentially reactivating supplies to American refineries after years of sanctions. This strategy has already exerted pressure on benchmark crude prices.

Additionally, Trump proposed increasing the U.S. defense budget by $500 billion, bringing it to $1.5 trillion, along with restrictions on share buybacks and dividends for major contractors.

Global Market Scenario

The dollar index has experienced a slight strengthening, while oil prices remain around $57.00 per barrel. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries stands at 4.16%. These movements reflect a context where investors are simultaneously assessing inflationary pressures, fiscal policies, and the global geopolitical landscape.