Nearly $2 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts have just expired. What does the market signal?

A major event occurred today: Bitcoin and Ethereum both recorded the expiration of approximately $2.2 billion USD in options contracts on the derivatives market. This is an important signal for traders preparing to respond to potential market volatility in the coming days.

Leverage Index Drops to Unprecedented Levels

Current market data shows an interesting picture: Bitcoin’s Open Interest has sharply decreased, reaching its lowest level since 2022. This phenomenon can be observed across all major exchanges, as active investors reduce leveraged positions.

According to CryptoQuant statistics, the 30-day OI index has experienced a significant decline. Major trading platforms worldwide are reporting similar trends — leveraged buying pressure is retreating from the market.

Bitcoin Struggles to Break Above $90,000

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $93,000 (with a -2.24% change in 24 hours), but the “max pain” level is set at $90,000 — the point where most options will expire worthless.

Above $90,000, buying pressure remains relatively strong, with many call options placed in the range from $90,000 to $100,000. This indicates that some traders remain optimistic about the bullish outlook. However, below $85,000, there is significant protection via put options, reflecting concerns about potential downside risks.

Approximately $1.84 billion USD in Bitcoin options expired today, creating notable tension in the market.

Ethereum Around $3,100 USD — Is There a Bullish Opportunity?

Ethereum is currently trading at $3,220 (down -3.21% in 24 hours), close to the “max pain” point at $3,100. The different situation here is that buying pressure on Ethereum is considered relatively solid, especially at prices above $3,000.

About 126,000 Ethereum options contracts with a total value of approximately $384 million USD just expired. The relatively high concentration of call options at higher levels indicates that traders still maintain confidence in Ethereum’s strength.

What to Expect in the Market After This Event?

Historically, when Open Interest drops sharply and reaches a historic low, it often signals a rebalancing phase. The price constraints from leveraged positions are lifted, giving the market more room to fluctuate.

This phase usually leads to two scenarios: First, the market enters a quiet accumulation phase as dealers adjust their hedges. Second, if new capital flows in, a strong recovery phase may occur.

However, market sentiment and macro factors (such as policy decisions on tariffs and US employment data) will be key in determining the price direction in the near future.

Questions to Clarify

When do major options expiration events typically cause market reactions?

After contracts expire, temporary price constraints are removed. Dealers can quickly adjust their hedges, leading to sudden volatility. These changes usually last from a few hours to several days, depending on market sentiment and external news.

How does the “max pain” level influence cryptocurrency prices?

The “max pain” level is the price at which the maximum profit for option sellers is achieved — meaning most options expire worthless. Markets tend to gravitate toward these levels before expiration, but after the event, prices can move sharply in a new direction.

What does a sharp decline in Open Interest mean for investors?

A significant drop in Open Interest often indicates that excess leveraged positions have been liquidated. This can be seen as a positive sign, showing that the market has removed much of the selling pressure. This phase opens opportunities for new accumulation or price recovery.