The real issue isn't picking the right direction—it's how leverage restructures risk entirely.

When you add perps and margin trading into the mix, volatility stops being just price swings. It becomes something sharper: liquidation cascades that force you out, unexpected margin calls that execute positions at the worst moments, and the psychological spiral that follows. One bad move compounds into another.

This mess is especially brutal in early-stage markets where price action is already choppy and unpredictable. You're fighting both the market and the mechanics at the same time.