Ethereum 2026 Price Outlook: ZK-EVM Upgrade Lays the Foundation for Structural Growth

Ethereum once again becomes the market focus, with the synchronized advancement of the technical roadmap and price behavior laying the groundwork for a new upward cycle. As innovative expansion solutions like ZK-EVM and PeerDAS, outlined by Vitalik Buterin, are gradually implemented, this ecosystem has transcended mere price speculation. Currently, Ethereum maintains a constructive structure in the short term, with traders constantly weighing derivatives leverage, spot flows, and technological breakthroughs. This multi-dimensional balance is shaping ETH’s market image as one that embodies momentum, caution, and long-term evolution.

Ecosystem Upgrades Drive Long-Term Expectations

Ethereum’s development narrative has long surpassed the scope of price charts. Recently, Buterin publicly discussed the progress of ZK-EVM in production (currently in alpha stage, with security being the focus) and the activation of PeerDAS on the mainnet. These upgrades are not minor tweaks but are transforming Ethereum into a truly scalable settlement layer. In the coming years, further promotion of ZK verification will solidify its core position in ecosystem expansion. This outlook helps investors maintain confidence in the medium to long term, even amid intense short-term price volatility.

Short-Term Technicals Show Clear Bullish Signals

From the 4-hour chart, Ethereum’s technical pattern clearly indicates buyer control. Higher highs and higher lows form a standard ascending pattern, with prices consistently staying above the rapidly rising moving averages. After breaking through the $3,000 level, the subsequent volatility expansion suggests this is a genuine trend participation, not a false signal caused by low liquidity.

The current resistance zone of $3,220-$3,250 forms the first critical hurdle. Once this line is confirmed to be broken, Ethereum will face a test at $3,305 (corresponding to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level). If momentum continues to build, $3,450 will become the next expansion target.

Downside support is equally crucial. The support around $3,190 aligns with key Fibonacci levels, and any effective breach could trigger a deeper correction. The $3,110-$3,070 range consolidates the dual strength of the moving averages and intermediate Fibonacci support levels. If it falls below $3,030, focus will shift to the structural support at $2,920.

Derivatives Data Indicates Relief Signs

Open interest in Ethereum futures recently expanded significantly during the upward breakout, reaching levels close to previous cycle highs. This phenomenon reflects a notable increase in derivatives participation. However, the subsequent pullback to around $40 billion in open interest indicates position reduction rather than risk withdrawal. Traders seem to actively reduce leverage exposure after strong price moves while maintaining overall participation. Compared to historical cycles, the current open interest remains relatively high, typically signaling consolidation rather than trend reversal.

Spot Exchange Flows Suggest Caution

Unlike the active derivatives market, spot market fund flows show more conservative signals. Recent outflows from exchanges dominate, indicating that despite price strength, there is still distributed selling pressure. These occasional small inflows have not formed sustained momentum, reaffirming that traders may be more focused on short-term trading opportunities rather than long-term accumulation. As prices rise, supply rotation continues, which contrasts with expectations of tightening supply.

Key Levels and Decision Framework

Resistance Above: The $3,220-$3,250 zone marks the recent swing high. Confirmed breakout points toward $3,305 (0.786 Fibonacci level), with further extension possible to $3,450.

Support Below: The initial defense line is at $3,190 (Fibonacci key level). Secondary support is at $3,110-$3,070 (moving averages + Fibonacci fusion). A deeper support is at $3,030, with the main structural support at $2,920.

Trading Strategy: Ethereum is currently in a critical decision zone; support resilience will determine subsequent movement. Recent volatility compression may expand again. If it breaks above $3,250 and closes above, then $3,305 and $3,450 become new targets. Conversely, if it fails to hold $3,030, focus shifts to the lower base at $2,920. Each support reaction is crucial at this moment.

Current Price: $3.21K | 24h Change: -2.98%