The surprising things Bitcoin brings: Bear market analysis for 2026 is challenged by top experts

In the context of concerns about a potential bear market in 2026, renowned cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe has presented evidence to counter the “big crash” scenario predicted by many. Instead of trusting popular expectations, he argues that the Bitcoin market is entering a new phase with different rules.

Bitcoin Cycle No Longer Follows the Old Model

The traditional “guiding principle” that investors relied on—the four-year classic cycle—seems to have lost its validity. Van de Poppe emphasizes that market structure has fundamentally changed, with a strong increase in institutional capital flows. This means that what happened in the past does not necessarily repeat itself.

To clarify, investors often fear because they look back at history: in 2014, Bitcoin dropped 30%, in 2018, it fell 74%, and in 2022, it declined 64%. Naturally, people fear that 2026 will repeat a similar tragedy. But according to Van de Poppe’s analysis, the current situation is entirely different.

Gold and Bitcoin: Capital Shift Signals What?

An interesting phenomenon is occurring: recent capital flows have moved into gold instead of Bitcoin. Gold has surpassed many historical highs, with trading volumes increasing by trillions of dollars, while Bitcoin remains relatively quiet. However, Van de Poppe argues that this is a positive signal, not a negative one.

According to the analyst, similar historical instances often come with a phenomenon: after strong capital inflows into gold, the money tends to shift into other risk assets like Bitcoin. If this happens, Bitcoin has the potential to grow much higher than gold in an environment of abundant liquidity.

Technical Signal: RSI at Rare Levels

On the technical chart, Bitcoin’s (RSI) (Relative Strength Index) has fallen into oversold territory—a rare condition in history. Data shows that such RSI levels often coincide with market bottoms, meaning prices are about to rebound rather than continue declining.

Changing Economic Environment

On a macro level, unemployment rates are rising, bond yields are falling, and central banks need liquidity more than ever. Especially in the US, a weak labor market combined with heavy debt burdens is pushing interest rates downward. In such a context, risky assets like Bitcoin are expected to benefit.

When compared to the money supply (M2), both gold and Bitcoin are not overvalued. This suggests that both have room to grow in the long term.

2026: Recovery Instead of Collapse?

Van de Poppe concludes that the expectations of an “inevitable big crash” in 2026 may have been exaggerated. Instead, current data suggests that the market is closer to a sudden recovery rather than a downward trend under current conditions.

Although no one can be 100% certain about the direction in 2026, economic, technical, and capital flow indicators all point to potential positive surprises ahead. If Bitcoin can rebound to $100,000, the bullish trend could double itself as pessimistic investors gradually return to the market.