Is Bitcoin's current trend really similar to 2022? An in-depth technical and macroeconomic comparison analysis

【Blockchain Rhythm】 Recently, some analysts have been comparing Bitcoin’s current trend with the market conditions of 2022, mostly adopting a bearish outlook. From short-term charts, some similar patterns can indeed be identified, but such comparisons are fundamentally flawed — looking at the long term, the backgrounds of the two periods are completely different.

What was the situation at the beginning of 2022? The overall market tone was risk-averse, with capital retreating. Bitcoin at that time was showing a distribution structure at high levels within a tightening cycle. Now, the situation is completely reversed. The US liquidity index has broken through both the short-term and long-term downtrend lines, and a new upward momentum is forming.

From a technical perspective, between 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin formed an M-top pattern on the weekly chart, which typically indicates a long-term top and tends to suppress price performance. Currently, the weekly upward channel has been broken. Probabilistically, this looks more like a bear trap before a rebound back into the channel. Of course, a bear market cannot be completely ruled out, but the key point is that the $80,850 to $62,000 range has undergone sufficient consolidation and turnover, with the previous chips absorbed, providing a better risk-reward ratio for bulls — the upside potential is significantly larger, and the downside risk is relatively controlled.

What conditions are needed to truly restart a bear market? New inflation shocks or geopolitical crises comparable to those of 2022; central banks resuming rate hikes or quantitative tightening; and the price decisively breaking below the $80,850 level. Until these conditions are met, any talk of a structural bear market is mostly speculation, not genuine analysis.

Another important point — the investor structure of Bitcoin has changed significantly. 2022 was a typical crypto bear market dominated by retail investors and driven by high leverage speculation, filled with retail panic selling and chain liquidations. Now, we are in a much more mature institutional era, characterized by stable demand, locked supply, and volatility at institutional levels. This shift alone has changed the game.