⚡️《Alien Polymarket Investment Diary》⚡️

Entry 1, 2026.1.19: We initially thought Polymarket was just "online gambling," but after a deeper understanding, we realize it's real "predictive trading," a comprehensive prediction that is transparent on the blockchain.
Market is boring, Bitcoin is flat: I found that I had also made over $300 on Polymarket, with $388 in my account. So I will publicly share all trades and review them daily. My address: 0xf3bBA1DCEc4Cf8CF97A235c224a96C0F4be4DCbD
🕐Long-term event profit from volatility:
Buy 6,000 contracts at a price of 5.2 predicting Portugal's right-wing Vitrula will win; the second round of voting will be on February 8:
1⃣️ There are only 2 candidates, the market is large, reaching 95:5, with significant profit margins
2⃣️ Seguro is left-wing, currently at 95%. Most of the failed and eliminated candidates are right-wing, and these votes will go to Vitrula in the second vote
3⃣️ The global political landscape is shifting to the right under Trump's leadership, this is not an isolated case and will influence each other
⏰ In a 2-choice election, even at 50%, there is a small 10x profit margin; even if I lose in the end, as the voting approaches, with a 30% probability, there is still a 6x profit margin; if I don't hold until the final voting day, and Vitrula makes a move, the winning probability increases, and I will gradually sell.
🕑Mature event profit from certainty:
The US's approach to Iran before January 23 is to buy 92% unlikely to happen:
1⃣️ Very unlikely, only three days left
2⃣️ US troops are on high alert in Venezuela, no energy to deal with Iran
⏰ Short time frame, quick results. Since there is about a 10% profit margin, compounded, it can be quite impressive.
🕒AI quantitative trading profits:
Not yet operational, to be continued…
🕓BTC: After the Bitcoin found strong support in the 80,000-90,000 range, it has been relatively stable. The small fluctuations are nothing.
PS: Started officially recording alien predictions on Polymarket. Previously, I tried with a few thousand dollars to test the 5-minute BTC price fluctuation for quantitative trading, but lost everything. The strategy failed, and the bot stopped running. Today I logged in again and found that a BTC price prediction under $100 with a profit of over $300, nearly 4x profit. This made me rethink my trading strategy. I won't add more money; I will start trading on Polymarket with the $388 in my account and publicly share all trades on X.
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