Many people observe that despite the macroeconomic bearish news over the weekend, Bitcoin didn't crash, and only on Monday did it start to retrace. It feels quite strange. This rhythm has been repeatedly played out over the past year, and if you look at two specific examples, they are essentially no different in essence.

The key point here is not whether the crypto market can be traded over the weekend, but that the funds holding the actual pricing power simply don't work during the weekend. The participants present on weekends are mainly crypto industry funds, Asian traders, along with market makers maintaining prices and pulling volatility according to low risk control standards. These forces at most maintain the status quo; it's difficult for them to initiate a "macro-level re-pricing" proactively.

The real forces that are forced to act due to macro changes are the systems that only start on Monday: index futures, macro hedge funds, passive rebalancing mechanisms, risk control model recalculations, margin and VAR stress tests. These funds are not "bearish and want to sell," but when model parameters change, they must sell, and they sell a portfolio of all risk assets, not just BTC.

So what you're seeing is not the market over the weekend being indifferent to bearish news, but rather that the settlement process hasn't reached its time yet. When the US market opens on Monday and the system kicks in, Nasdaq futures and S&P futures will plunge first, risk appetite will be compressed, and Bitcoin will naturally follow with this move. Even if the US stock spot market doesn't open, as long as index futures and interest rates are volatile, the new pricing process has already started.

This also explains why the crypto market is always in a "waiting for Monday" state. It's not that BTC suddenly weakened, but that it has long been integrated into the global risk asset ecosystem. It still has pricing power over on-chain activity, narrative hotspots, and supply-demand patterns—internal factors. However, when faced with major events like interest rate changes, liquidity shocks, or policy crackdowns, it has become highly dependent on the reactions of the European and American markets.

Therefore, if you see BTC holding up over the weekend, many times it's not because it's truly strong, but because that external capital hasn't come back to work yet. Once global risk assets start deleveraging on Monday, the crypto market is just following along with the retracement. Ultimately, today's Bitcoin market more resembles waiting for the pricing signals from Wall Street's Monday morning opening.